Talk Of Trump-Biden Rematch

Back in 1960, during the early stage of the campaign for obtaining party endorsements for presidential election in the United States, John F. Kennedy threw his hat in the ring. Call it caution or criticism, doubts were expressed over his age. Senator was considered by many among his Democratic Party members that he was “too young”, at 43, to contest for the world’s most powerful post. That he was in the exclusive club of “millionaires” was also feared to project him as a rich young man who might not be able to feel the pulse of an average American. 

Moreover, the Republicans were fielding “an experienced” two-time Vice-President Richard Nixon under the outgoing President Dwight Eisenhower. The doubters were not satisfied that Senator Kennedy had also served the House of Representatives thrice. That did not deter Kennedy and larger numbers of Democrats from giving him the ticket for the last lap of the November race that year. Kennedy not only won his party support but went on to breast past the finishing line to the White House even if with a razor thin margin to become the country’s youngest executive head.

Age factor

Fast forward to the spring of 2023, and age is set to become an issue once again. President Joe Biden is giving hints that he would seek a second term next year. Already the oldest man to enter the White House as it chief occupant in 2021, the former vice-president under Barack Obama will be 82 if he does contest and win the November 2024 election. He has in his argument-kitty the famous example offered by Republican President Ronald Reagan who was 70 when he was sworn in as the 35th president and turned 78 when he bid adieu to the White House eight years later. A former Hollywood actor, Reagan outpolled incumbent president Jimmy Carter who himself had defeated Gerald Ford who never won a full term. 

As vice-president, Ford stepped into presidency to complete the remaining term of Richard Nixon who resigned to avoid the certainty of being impeached in connection with the wire-tapping case better known as Watergate Scandal. When Reagan decided to seek a second term in 1984, the Democrats fielded former Vice-President Walter Mondale. Mondale’s campaign team tried to hammer on the age issue. During a live TV debate between the two candidates — a practice that debuted with the Nixon-Kennedy encounter in 1960 — a confident sounding made light of his age. His line pledging that he would not take advantage of his opponent’s “youth and inexperience” torpedoed any strength in the age issue. 

Political analysts concluded that Reagan’s popularity ratings even in the eight years at the White House would have given him a third term but for the constitutional ceiling of two terms for any president. Biden debuted as president at the age Reagan had attained at the end of his second term in 1989. Trump and Biden can, therefore, argue any which way, but both would be quite aged at 78 and 82 respectively in January 2025. Does the world’s No. 1 superpower and largest economy suffer such famine in search of a younger president to steer its course in a clearly emerging multi-power world?   

The new millennium has witnessed early preparations for securing party tickets in the presidential election. As the ongoing speculation and activity by potential candidates point out, the presidential hopefuls begin floating trial balloon shortly after mid-term elections, which means when elections to a fresh house of representatives and one-third of the senate seats are held even as the incumbent president is half way to completing his term. 

Back in 1988, I was given the choice by the US Embassy in Kathmandu as to which of the two party conventions I would like to have a ringside view of — the Democrats’ of the Republicans’?  Perhaps not fully recovered from a tilt toward the Democrats, perhaps when at school we were treated to several documentaries on the Kennedy and how he was assassinated that November 1963, I opted for the Democratic Party gathering. 

That was two and a half years after writing a regular column, “Far and Wide”, on world affairs, which turned out to impress the Americans — and later others as well — to extend an invite to visit the summer event anointing Michael Dukakis as the party’s presidential candidate. While the visa section was formalising my visa application just filled in, Ambassador Milton Frank queried as to who I thought would win the November race. My guess was for Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis. Visibly disappointed, he argued for the incumbent Vice-President George H. Bush to triumph. 

An impressive line-up the Democrats’ yesteryear presidential aspirants like Carter (for a failed second term), Mondale, Ted Kennedy and Andrew Jackson met with foreign guests comprising lawyers, politicians, academics and journalists. When I introduced myself, Carter said: “I was there. I had a good time.”

Hitting the mark

Soon after the five-week trip to the US, I was invited to a luncheon meeting with Frank. He again asked for my assessment of the race for the White House. I gave him a revised version, assuring him that Dukakis, who was still leading by doubt digits in the opinion polls, would be defeated. To which, the ambassador clearly glowed with satisfaction. Four months later, the assessment turned out to be accurate. Bush, who was described by some commentators as a “wimp”, was elected to succeed Reagan.

Now back to 2023. Latest public surveys report that if elections were held now, Trump would win by a slight margin. As for obtaining party endorsement, a February survey showed 43 per cent of registered Republicans supporting Trump as against 31 per cent for his nearest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. And the presidential election is 20 months away.

Nothing can be ruled out in politics, even if that happens to be in the US. Hence, Trump’s rematch with Biden might not be impossible but does sound improbable. Looking forward to what really happens by the end of spring next year.  

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)