From Marcos To Marcos

Change In Philippines.” That was the heading in this scribe’s debut-making article on international affairs back in February 1986, days after that archipelago’s long-ruling President Ferdinand Marcos decided to live in exile in the 50th state of the United States. Thirty-six years after the senior Marcos left the country in disgrace, his son has made it to the seat of power in Manila. A favourite from the very start of the campaign, Ferdinand Marcos Jr did not disappoint his supporters but deeply disappointed his detractors. 

The 1987 constitution allows only a single six-year term to a president.  The mandatory ceiling is to forestall efforts at holding on to power by manipulative means. In fact, the first two presidents under the new Constitution vainly tried tampering with the basic law of the land. Power is alluring; once in its saddle, intoxicating experience can befall. Corazon Aquino, who led the successful 1985-86 anti-Marcos street rallies, tried but quickly abandoned her bid for another term. Her nominee Gen. Fidel Ramos, too, fell for the temptation when his time for retirement arrived. However, public outcry made him halt once he realised the strength of public protests.  

Familiar cycle

The cycle of power politics has brought things back to square one. The long promised land reforms along with a leap forward pledged in raising the general people’s living standards have basically been confined to rhetoric. At first people were disappointed. Three and a half decades later, their despair was reflected in the manner in which Marcos Jr was installed as their new president. An electoral pact between Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr and Sara Duterte, daughter of the outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, ensured the duo to skate smoothly to the high offices. 

Inaugurated in June for a six-year mandatorily single term, Marcos Jr. and Vice-President Duterte make a very interesting duo, reflecting the twists and turns that the nation has taken since the change that was brought about with lofty promises amid huge public expectations. Of note is that former President Duterte did much to rehabilitate the senior Marcos. Like father like daughter, the new vice-president, too, does not criticise the ex-President Marcos, who ruled for two decades. 

In January, Marcos Jr paid a state visit to China, which was his first in a country other than an ASEAN member state, pledging to “open a new chapter in our comprehensive strategic cooperation with China”. China remains not only the Philippines’ largest trading partner but also the largest import and second largest export markets. Its investments in that South-East Asian nation has quadrupled while bilateral trade volume doubled in the last few years. This is the chief cause contributing to both Beijing and Manila taking a pragmatic course in navigating the complex issue of various claims over South China Sea islands.

Several states in the region stake claims over the islands while China demands a lion’s share. The US is keen to rake up the issue against China. As president, Duterte distanced himself from any policy of confrontation with Beijing. Economic cooperation and quiet diplomacy were his chief approach in ties with the world’s next No. 1 economy. Marcos is expected to give continuity to that policy.  For example, he eyes increased volume of Chinese tourists to the Philippines, aware that less than 10,000 Chinese visited the archipelago in 2022 in contrast to 1.6 million tourists four years earlier from the world’s second largest economy.

Major power groups court for alliance of convenience to remain in or be close to another country to protect and promote their interests mostly of economic type. The Philippines, a former American colony, is the oldest treaty ally of the United States in Southeast Asia, considered as it is as Washington’s major security partner. The senior Marcos years were a roller coaster period in the Philippines-US ties. 

The collective memory of the Filipinos will not just get erased. Marcos Senior is estimated to have stashed away well over $5 billion to $10 billion. The US media wowed over the glamorous Imelda Marcos.  The president flaunted her with pride and resultant political clout to boost his international image. The US annexed the Philippines in 1898 from Spain. Subsequent war between the indigenous population and the colonisers claimed 200,000 Filipinos killed or famine-killed. All that took a major shift in pattern seven years ago when Rodrigo Duterte, with the support of Marcos supporters, made it to Manila’s Malacanang Palace. He made some moves for serious corruption control, and with limited success. 

Action & reaction

When Washington, prodded by its European allies, tried showing its “concern” over “encounter killings”, the enraged Duterte called the US a “lousy” nation, attacked his American counterpart Barack Obama as a “bastard” and also challenged the intelligence agency CIA to engineer a military coup against him. 

Duterte was giving vent to his anger against the US government for criticising his anti-drugs campaign that saw several thousand dealers killed in violent encounters with security forces. Official figures count 6,000 encounter deaths while non-governmental agencies give twice that number. Duterte retained a higher level of public approval ratings than did Obama or his successor Donald Trump. His vigorous action against drug dealers, while also being endorsed by an impressive public support, spoke of the gravity of the complex tragedy the drugs mafia relentlessly triggered.

On the political plane, dynastic hold on electoral process and outcome unfolds a landscape far from the best of democratic ideal. Some dozens of families directly or indirectly share power in the name of the Filipino population of 115 million, which makes it world’s 13th most-populous nation. A few families constitute nearly three-fourths of the Congress seats are filled. They hail from aristocratic class and wield extensive influential, which creates great difficulty in introducing reforms that would not be congenial for this class but would form major strides in offering fairer opportunities and avenues for better living standards and creative initiatives.  

The new leadership in Manila faces the task of addressing in real earnest the basic expectations a people who have been left high and dry for too long. The youth want action for better opportunities and end to outdated mode of governance.

(Former chief editor of The Rising Nepal, P. Kharel has been writing for this daily since 1973)