In US, Between Now And November

Dismissed, as late as last summer, by many in the Washington elite community and some of the leading news outlets as someone heading for a stinging defeat even if he managed to continue in the presidential race later this year, former President Donald Trump has emerged as a very credible contestant for what is touted as the world’s most powerful position. Even as public opinion polls frequently showed Trump’s hold on a large majority of his Republican Party members, the anti-Trump sections elected to minimise his prospects of not only obtaining the party ticket but actually bouncing back to the coveted chair at the White House. 

The slant in the so-called expert opinion is getting blunted, of late. With eight months remaining for the final lap to be completed and reaching the finishing line, the general perceptions appear to change. Bitter critics for eight years are now grudgingly acknowledging that the former president does have a “fighting chance” of winning the election against incumbent President Joe Biden. Trump’s triumph would mean a repeat of what happened in 2020, when Biden defeated the incumbent chief executive head, Trump, in a highly controversial electoral outcome that continues to bitterly divide voters even today.

Eight months to go 

Between now and November, there may be many a slip between the cup and the lip. But a series of surveys indicate Biden trailing. A Gallup report in January found Biden and Trump evenly matched as far as their public ratings were concerned. Amidst speculation that Biden has begun slipping in the ratings subsequently comes opinions that Biden might raise his hands before summer to allow someone younger in the Democratic Party to give Trump a run for his ambition to return to the White House in triumph. 

Allegations of massive voter fraud in 2020 continue to circulate with force. Doubts about the purity of the results and continued charges of false votes cast uncomfortable questions among millions of American people have not adequately cleared three year after the last presidential poll. False belief was widespread, as some US university professors found in their studies about voter fraud. More than 78 per cent of Trump voters believe Biden’s victory not to be legitimate. That is why Trump is such an energetic candidate well set to obtain his party ticket to challenge his Democratic opponent. Trump, 77, and his supporters are making a big capital from the 81-year-old President Joe Biden’s frail-looking, stumbling-bumbling, slurring image.  

The British magazine Economist in a February issue admitted: “American defence is increasingly focused on the Pacific…Donald Trump may very well be the next American president, has cast doubt on whether he would rally to Europe’s side following Russian attack.” The US Supreme Court last fortnight rejected state efforts in Colorado, Illinois and Maine at barring him from ballot. In a unanimous verdict, the judges ruled against states invoking a post-Civil War constitutional provision to ban presidential candidates from appearing on ballots. 

The three state governments wanted the Republican Party’s front runner declared ineligible to be on the ballot on alleged charges of his attempts to reverse his loss in the 2020 election, which triggered attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. In reaction to the apex court verdict, a visibly elated Trump posted on his social media network: “Big win for America!” A series of public opinion surveys in the past two months showed Trump ahead of Biden in their electoral prospects. Earlier, it was a neck and neck competition. As the days progressed, the former president’s margin of lead improved over the incumbent president’s.

The former First Lady Michelle Obama’s name is floating in quarters to be fielded as the Democratic candidate for some weeks. This echoes the unease with which active Democratic voters are holding their breath over increasing uncertainty of Biden’s chances of securing a second term in office. It betrays doubts getting firm among Biden’s supporters, which only boosts Trump loyalists’ morale. It does not augur well for Biden that Vice-President Kamala Harris is even less popular than Biden among Democrats and floating voters. There is a suggestion that Obama be declared Biden’s running mate in deference to widely held belief among Democratic Party members that she would attract additional voters to the Biden camp next November.

Taxing tradition 

Tradition demands that an incumbent president’s desire to seek a second term does not meet with any serious challenger. This is so in both the Democratic and Republican parties. The first black candidate to be elected to the country’s highest job, former President Barack Obama continues to be popular among the majority of Democrats. Michelle Obama would have by her side an experienced hand to offer her advice on state affairs. There are others who agree that were Biden to pull out of the race before the spring ended, it would reignite zeal and energy among party members to campaign against Trump. But they need to name someone with more proven political credentials than the former First Lady on the eve of the party convention that anoints the organisation’s ticket winner in summer. 

Given that Vice-President Kamala Harris’s popularity is poor, Obama as Biden’s running mate could attract extra votes for the team. Picking a running mate carries considerable meaning. Biden is unlikely to opt for a new running mate replacing Harris, as it would give fodder to the Trump camp to suggest that the president had lost faith in his own ability and popularity, and hence the heavy reliance on a new running mate. One of the reasons for Republican Party President George H. Bush not being able to win a second term in office in 1992 is widely attributed to his Vice-President Dan Quayle who did not click with voters in the four years he held the post described as “only a heart-beat away” from the presidency, that is, to take over automatically if unlikely circumstances occurred such as a president’s death, resignation or successful impeachment. 

However, the moot point is whether Biden would be willing to gracefully withdraw from the race on “health grounds” much to the “pain and disappointment” of his supporters. Latest public surveys indicate that Biden’s image among most young and non-white adults suffers. Such scenario spells good news for the Trump supporters.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)