Abrupt shift in alliance puts NC in opposition

By Pallav Bhusal,Kathmandu, Mar. 5:The political developments of the last 24 hours have shocked the Nepali Congress leaders, as the party which was in power for over a year has moved into opposition role.

With the decision of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ to discontinue the coalition, the NC lost key ministerial berths in the centre while it will be losing four chief ministers and several ministers serving in seven provinces. 

Even hours after PM Prachanda apprised NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba of his decision to end the coalition, NC has not withdrawn its support given to the government. After the Prime Minister appointed new ministers from UML and RSPm, the NC was grappling with a crucial decision concerning its ongoing support to the government. 

The party called a meeting of the party office bearers for Tuesday to decide on the issue. 

"Prime Minister Prachanda broke the alliance unexpectedly and unbelievably. The Congress intends to adopt a constructive opposition role," said Ramesh Lekhak, Chief Whip of Nepali Congress, told The Rising Nepal.

Lekhak said that a meeting of the Nepali Congress on Tuesday will come up with the party’s stance and future course.  

While Prime Minister Prachanda had expressed plans to reshuffle the Council of Ministers, NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba summoned party ministers on Sunday and told them to be prepared for potential resignations. PM’s decisions were linked to the events of the National Assembly election in Koshi and the decisions made by the NC’s Mahasamiti meeting.

Contrary to earlier resignation instructions, Nepali Congress Ministers have opted not to step down. NC leader Dhanraj Gurung said that a meeting on Monday decided to remain in the opposition. 

Meanwhile, as the political scenario changes in Kathmandu, its repercussions extend to the province governments. The central coalition involving CPN-UML, CPN-Maoist Centre, Rastriya Swatantra Party, and Janata Samajwadi Party-Nepal that lacks representation in all provinces, will complicate the new power balance.

In Gandaki's 60-member Provincial Assembly, CPN-UML and Maoist Centre face challenges with 22 and 8 seats, respectively. Maoist Centre affiliation bars participation in government formation, and the combined Maoist and UML MPs fall short of the majority required.

The Nepali Congress, with 27 MPs, contemplates withdrawing support, potentially leading to a government collapse if the Maoist Centre withdraws. Forming a new government poses challenges, with UML potentially requiring an alliance with Maoists and RPP.

Similarly, the abrupt shift in the central power alliance has thrown the Koshi Province government into crisis. If the Chief Minister of Koshi resigns, the subsequent government will be established in accordance with Article 168 of the constitution. This marks the fifth government shift in 14 months since the 2022 election, indicating a deepening political instability. 

Likewise, the altered political alliance at the centre is poised to impact Karnali, triggering a potential reshuffle. With Nepali Congress handling three ministries in the 8-member cabinet, a shift in the equation hints at Congress ministers set to depart. If realised, CPN-UML and Maoists, with a combined 23 MPs, could easily form the government, requiring a minimum of 21 in the 40-member state assembly. 

Similarly, the new political development may cast uncertainty on the fate of Madesh Province government. To secure a majority in the 107-member Madhes Provincial Assembly, at least 54 MPs' support is imperative. The current coalition comprises 23 UML MPs, nine from the Maoist Centre, and 18 from Janata Samajwadi Party-Nepal, totalling 49 due to UML's Ramchandra Mandal holding the Speaker’s position. The coalition requires the backing of at least five additional MPs for a majority.

On December 25, 2022, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda had formed a government with UML support, deviating from the pre-election alliance. Subsequently, Prachanda terminated the coalition with UML.