Niger Shaping Own Narrative

French President Emmanuel Macron fumed when US President Joe Biden sent his deputy secretary of state to negotiate with the coup leaders in Niger in August. It was amply clear that Washington was in no mood to fight for merely French interests in that uranium-rich African state, most of whose 26 million people languish in poverty. Macron had sided with the Biden’s Ukraine policy with considerable enthusiasm in the self-assurance that, when French interests were at stake, Washington would not let Paris down. That kind of anticipated honour does not come calling when greater stakes are high for a more powerful ally.

Honour does not prevail with always. A day comes when a traditional ally distances itself from a particular condition. “Long-term diplomatic” considerations and “nation first” policies along with “security interests” are grounds are instances of conspicuous hold-back. Such possibilities should never be ruled out. It was with foresight that the noted geo-strategist former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said: "To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal" 

Bitter truth

That’s the naked truth of timeless value. Forging ties is essential but caution and, when feasible, alternative plans for fallback position should steer troubling times. National interest takes precedence over everything else. Hence superpowers do not cause any big surprise when they do not show up and pull their shocks up in support of a long-time ally. That’s the other side of “diplomacy”. Ups and downs happen. 

The French president be visiting the lesson now, after absorbing the initial stunning shock and reassessing his country’s position in the aftermath of the military coup in the West African state of Niger.  It signals how France is catastrophically losing its grip on former territories in Africa. Reason: decades of failed foreign policies. There are already voices echoing in Europe that it is time for European allies to re-think their relationship with the US and the United Kingdom. 

Analysts say that Abdourahamane Tchiani, the former commander of the presidential guard who leads the new regime, and his fellow senior officers had been underestimated by observers in the region and farther afield. When the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) said a military force had been put on standby to restore democracy in Niger, the military leaders in the uranium rich Niger sent an ultimatum to the pro-West ECOWAS — accept the new regime or face war. 

Nigeria was for military intervention, forgetting that it was ruled for 30 years by military men and for several years in the 1980s. Nigerian threats to Niger junta undone by fierce domestic opposition. Natural resources like uranium but the country languished in poverty. 

The new Niger rulers remained defiant, apparently confident that disarray among regional opponents, support from other military regimes in neighbouring countries and a wave of popular mobilisation at home will allow them to keep power for an indefinite future. Mohamed Bazoum, Niger’s democratically elected president, remains confined to his official residence in Niamey, the capital, amid weak bumbling efforts to convince the new rulers of the unstable but strategically important country to return to barracks. 

Jihadist insurgency for more than a decade caused havoc first in Malawi in 2012 and then neighbouring Niger and Burkina Faso in 2015. That is one of the main reasons for many civilian groups supporting the military takeover in the hope that the jihadists will be kept in check. Writing for The New York Times, Alex de Waal was emphatic: “Democracy can’t survive if it can’t deliver results. Africans want jobs, affordable food and housing, quality education and health care. They want peace and security and the chance to set the course of their own nations’ future without being told what they can and cannot do by foreign powers.” 

The military coup in Niger may push up the prices of uranium, an element that is used in nuclear power, medicine and defence. With proven uranium reserves that make the country fifth largest in the world, Niger accounts for the second largest import market for European Union at 25.38 percent of the grouping’s uranium import. Niger’s military regime has, at least initially, attracted popular support emanating from deep disappointment over elected leaders not delivering the basic services promised to the people for years. 

In less than three years, Africa has witnessed six military coups, Niger’s being the latest. Civilian support seems to have been high. Public rants against France, Niger’s former colonist, have been heavily ferocious.

Fighting mood

Both Mali, ruled by a military regime since 2021, and Burkina Faso, where an army captain took charge last year, have offered support to Niger’s new regime. The two neighbours warn that any military intervention in Niger would tantamount to a declaration of war against them. Mali has given the French a marching order and has recruited fighters from Russia’s private military company, the Wagner Group, to fight insurgents. Burkina Faso has also expelled Western military advisors and recruited the Wagner group for bolstering its security. 

Writing for The Guardian, a British paper, Jason Burke narrated how the British government ran a secret “black propaganda” campaign for decades, targeting Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia with leaflets and reports from fake sources by encouraging racial tensions, sowing chaos, inciting violence and reinforcing anti-communist ideas, newly declassified documents revealed. 

According to a 2014 survey by YouGov, 50 per cent of Britons think colonialism was beneficial to the colonised. As many as 35 million people died in the famines during the 200 years of British rule, when the coloniser practised tyrant disconnect as against the Mughals who engaged in tyrant connect with the local people. The latter did not repatriate their wealth to Ferghana in today’s Uzbekistan, where they came from, unlike the British who deposited their pay and profits to their bank accounts in Britain. 

India accounted for 27 per cent of the world economy but was reduced to 3 per cent by the time the British quit India in 1947. Today, development experts estimate that $45 trillion was repatriated to Britain. Many people in Niger conclude that much of the profits from their natural resources like uranium went straight into foreign pockets, leaving the local population to languish in poverty. 

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)