Delay In Thai Govt Formation

Ideologues, business companies and individuals in large numbers are keen to shape the world in their intended image. Thailand is a latest case in point. A decade after a military coup and military-backed rule, a strong popular verdict in May accorded a new party the mandate for governance and change. 

Pita Limjaroenenrat’s Move Forward and the Pheu Thai won a landslide victory in the contest for the popular chamber. As the single-largest party, the Move Forward proposed an alliance of six parties that as a combine has 314 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives. But there was a hitch. The prime minister needs 376 seats to be elected because of a rigid constitution that ignores a simple majority support, unlike in most other parliamentary democracies. The junta-appointed Senate was seen as a stumbling block to the largest alliance in parliament.

For weeks, there was uncertainty as to whether the party with an impressive voter support would be in power. The Thai constitution, drafted and amended by the military brass to suit its perception of how a government must be formed and run, sharply departs from democratic practices in most countries. The constitution provides for an upper chamber of parliament whose seating size is half the strength of the popular house of 500 members. An exclusive preserve of the military, the army fills the 250-seat Senate with its nominees who takes part in electing a prime minister.   

Pheu Thai’s two former prime ministers live in exile after facing charges of corruption and political misdemeanour. Although the party won the most seats in 2011 and 2019, it was prevented from forming a government. Hence its change in strategy by forging an opposition alliance. Its leaders in Thailand had, shortly after the election outcome, declared that the party had “No plan to form any other government”. This was to underscore unflinching faith in complying with the coalition partnership pledged to Pita’s new party. 

Prompt pact

The country’s two main opposition parties are now in greater uncertainty than they initially imagined. Pita has been suspended on some legal technicality the ruling side produced and his party could even face a ban for its alleged objective of revising laws pertaining to monarchy. During the election campaign, the new party had expressed the need for reviewing the existing law pertaining to the stringent royal insult law. Pheu Thai made no such commitment but is likely to maintain silence in tacit agreement with its coalition partner over the issue.

A Harvard graduate, Pita, 42, experienced first-hand the challenges he faces in the country of 66 million. During the election campaign, he attributed his success in good measure to what he learned as a student of higher education the United States. 

Having led the Move Forward to a stunning victory after nine years of a basically military rule in the country, Pita wants a functioning democracy replacing the existing “half-baked” democracy. In 2017, military generals redrew the constitution three years after they drafted and brought the document into operation. The Senate filled with military generals and their appointees was created to ensure that the army had a significant role in electing a prime minister. 

In May 2014, General Prayut Chan-o-cha, Commander of the Royal Thai Army, engineered the country’s 12th military coup since 1932 and made new arrangements for a new caretaker government installed in the wake of months of political chaos and uncertainty. Named National Council for Peace and Order, the new dispensation announced an interim constitution that invested in itself sweeping powers and designated Gen. Prayut as the new prime minister. 

Suspense ruled over how the Election Commission would interpret a case concerning complaint filed against Pita for failing to report on shares inherited from his father in a now-defunct media organisation. Recent events increasingly stressed that Thai people wanted political reforms to ensure greater popular participation in the affairs of the nation and accelerate development endeavours. One of the manifestations of this desire was indicated by frequent protest rallies whereby the demonstrators were vociferous in their demands for reforms at all levels.  

Discussion on the Thai monarchy is more or less taboo. “Crossing the line” could land a critic in trouble with the existing law and invite long prison sentences. The recent street rallies saw enthusiastic participation of students. That might have restrained the military rulers to exercise restraint, lest things should blow up to uncontrollable levels.

What now and next? The country’s conservative forces must take a close look at the on-goings. How did a new party obtain an impressive mandate from voters? Likewise, Thai Phieu, whose two top leaders were once prime ministers but are now in exile, continues to earn significant support base even after severe conservative charges and criticisms. 

Onerous task

Either sizeable sections of the population do not want changes related to do with the army as far as governing the country is concerned or they trust the opposition parties to take an appropriate course. This is for the military to assess and make concrete moves that earn it positive points from the general public and, with it, enhance wide public trust in the military as an institution. Such approach would ensure lasting respect and support for it.

Pita and his team have the task of living up to public expectations, even if existing political challenges mount. Their detractors might not want them to succeed. They have won a major battle but the road ahead is strewn with many more. 

Thai conservative political class believes the Western distorted perception of Thai tradition and culture draws a wedge between different sections in their society. They view the “radicals” as misguided and Western-inspired. The army will be closely watching the unfolding events in a country where a dozen military takeovers occurred in less than nine decades.

The call for the new government in Thailand is for not only doing good but also to be seen to be doing so. Without the cooperation from the cross-section of society and political spectrum at this juncture of changing world order, the country could lag behind its actual prospect of economic success and international profile. Reforms mean affecting adversely the interests of those comfortable with the traditional scheme of things.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)