US: Scouting For Gold In Old

What a fate! The United States President Biden bids for a second term in the November 2024 presidential race. Apparently, the Democratic Party does not have any better candidate to challenge its Republican rival, former President Donald Trump.

That is, as of now. Biden was already the oldest president to enter the White House in January 2021—older than anyone who completed his term for good. He will be 86 if obtains another four years and completes the mandate in 2028.

The US media would be skeptical about such an elderly leader holding the world’s most powerful seat if the politician happened to hail from other countries; more so, if from a developing country or from a country whose foreign policy clashed with that of the No. superpower’s.

Doubts sown

Sky News Australia in May interviewed a medical doctor, who called for Biden to take a “cognitive test” or “resign”. In many countries cognitive test is required for renewing driving license of those at age 80. Some call for IQ test. US media ignored the issue. It might not stand so silent if a similar situation confronted, say, Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Democrats, who asked Trump to take a cognitive test when he was president, are now conspicuous by their silence. That is how politics work not only in the No. 1 superpower country but in many other countries. 

Not that Trump, at 77, can be declared a young leader at a time when most Western leaders are in their 60s or less. French President Emmanuel Macron, 45, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, 51, are seemingly made of different stock, whatever the cause for their voters’ thinking. Only 40 when he was elected for the first time in 2017, Macron secured a second term in 2022. Second youngest Canadian prime minister, Trudeau is in his third consecutive term since being elected the first time in 2013. 

Biden’s Vice President Kamala Harris is touted as his Woman Friday in case of frail health and even worse. After all, a VeePee is described as a glorified entity couched in a contingency plan—only a “heartbeat away from the president”. 

Lyndon Johnson stepping into the shoes of the assassinated President John F. Kennedy in 1963 and, earlier, Harry Truman succeeding four-time President Franklin D. Roosevelt who died in office, went on to win a fresh term but not more. Johnson wilted under the pressure of huge public anger over the US involvement in the Vietnam War. In 1952, when Harry Truman was completing Roosevelt’s remaining term, was not seen as competent to lead the country at the height of the Cold War between the capitalist world’s leader and the first communist state of the Soviet Union.

Ronald Reagan was 69 years when he defeated incumbent President Jimmy Carter in 1980 and triumphed over Carter’s Vice President Walter Mondale, who was 53, when the latter threw his hat in the ring against the incumbent’s reelection bid in 1984. When age became a nagging issue during public debates and media comments, Reagan, then 73, told the 56-year-old Mondale: “I will not make age an issue in this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” The well-crafted contextual one-liner burnt away the age issue once and for all as far as the former Hollywood actor was concerned. 

The youngest US presidential candidate at the time of being elected in 1960 was John F. Kennedy at 43. During the campaign, one of the persistent doubts raised against him was over his age. Although most presidents in the post-World War decades were in their 60s, Reagan was 77 by the time he completed double terms at the White House. Biden will be 86 if he wins next year’s election.

The old & the older

Reagan retired in 1989, though still a widely popular leader with what Americans termed Teflon image. Foreign affairs preoccupied his second term. However, criticisms of him did not erode his popularity, as most Americans considered him to be an affable leader who meant well and served well the country to the best of his sincerity and ability.  His tough posture in facing the Soviet Union’s leadership went well with the American majority. 

Then came Biden, Barack Obama’s vice-president, to win the 2020 contest to the top job and became the oldest executive head to enter the White House. He was 78 when sworn into office in January 2021. He celebrated his birthday after winning the November election against incumbent President Donald Trump, that is, two months before his presidency was formally inaugurated.

Things might, however, swiftly change in the US presidential campaign by next spring. Biden’s age is an issue of consternation to a sizeable section of Democrats and their supporters among floating voters. The president might find some consolation from Trump’s vulnerability after being recently indicted in a case of sexual harassment committed before he was elected in 2016. 

Will each other’s disadvantages cancel both the candidacies prospects of winning their respective party tickets? So far no other stronger contenders are seen in the race. The picture should be definitively clear by summer next year. As of now, Biden seems to be on way to obtaining the Democratic ticket. In any case, an incumbent president showing interest in a second run normally gets party endorsement.

Trump insists he will not back out. As for Biden, much depends on how far he can hold on to his ambition. Provided his health stands him good stead between now and the party convention in 2024 summer, Biden will be the Democratic Party candidate. 

Not only Trump but most Republicans continue claiming that the 2020 victory was stolen from their candidate. No less than two-thirds of Republican Party members hold this line in 2023, too.  An interesting feature is that it has been many decades since a former president declared intention of another shot at the White House after a four-year gap. Grover Cleveland did so successfully in the last quarter of the 19th century. 

All said done, the race for the 2024 US presidential election can take any which course. As of now, the American public seems to be concentrating on the septuagenarian Trump and the octogenarian Biden. Should this continue, it’s either an 82-year-old Biden for four more years in office or his four years younger Trump who ultimately triumphs. 

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)