Mahottari election: Possibilities beyond traditional calculations

By Ajay Shah,Gaushala (Mahottari), Feb.1: As the House of Representatives election scheduled for March 5 draws closer, Mahottari’s political atmosphere is not only heating up but also moving beyond traditional electoral calculations. 

With four constituencies in the district, signs suggest that this election may defy the usual win-loss equations.

According to analysts, party organisation, the influence of money, caste dynamics and a growing appetite among voters for alternative political thinking could produce unexpected results in Mahottari.

The district’s geographical and social diversity is a major factor complicating the election. Urban areas along the highway, hill settlements in the north and rural Madhesi communities in the south have different priorities. 

This diversity has led to varying voter preferences even within the same constituency. This time, candidates’ personal image, accessibility and past performance appear to be more decisive than party affiliation.

In Constituency No. 1, which includes the highway corridor and northern areas, senior CPN leader and former minister Giriraj Mani Pokharel is a leading contender. 

He is considered popular in Bardibas due to infrastructure development, the establishment of government offices and his long political career. Contesting from the same constituency since 2008, this is his fifth election. 

Although he won three consecutive elections, he was defeated in 2022 by UML’s Laxmi Mahato Koiri. With the two facing each other again, the contest has become highly competitive, while candidates from the Nepali Congress and the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) could split votes.

Mukesh Kafle is the Nepali Congress candidate in this constituency. A former executive director of the Nepal Electricity Authority, Kafle has entered politics with strong administrative experience. Pramod Mahato is contesting from the RSP. 

Analysts believed the party’s call for change and new politics could attract young voters. With multiple parties in the race, vote splitting could lead to an unexpected outcome.

In Constituency No. 2, the contest centres on political experience and reputation. 

Sharat Singh Bhandari and Kiran Yadav both have long political histories. Voters here are weighing not just names, but ideology, past movements and commitment to development. Although traditional vote banks exist, the growing number of dissatisfied voters and changing attitudes among the younger generation suggest the result may not be one-sided. CPN-UML’s Kasif Nadaf is also contesting in this constituency.

Constituency No. 3 appears even more unpredictable, with 41 candidates in the race, making voter behaviour difficult to assess. A close contest is expected among Congress’s Bajrang Nepali, UML’s Manoj Singh, JSP Nepal’s Minakshi Thakur Jha, RSP’s Ujjwal Jha and independent candidate Ramadhar Kapar. 

The electoral equation has become more complex after Harinarayan Yadav entered the race as an independent following denial of a party ticket after party unification.

In Constituency No. 4, three former ministers are competing simultaneously -- Mahendra Kumar Ray of the Nepali Congress, Dr. Surendra Yadav of JSP Nepal and Bharat Prasad Sah of the CPN. The presence of UML candidate Nilam Adhikari has made the contest even more uncertain.

Although experience remains a key asset here, voters are now seeking not only a record of the past but also a clear vision for the future. The UML’s participation has turned what might have been a triangular contest into a multi-cornered one.

Overall, the Mahottari election is increasingly focused on voter psychology rather than party arithmetic. The tension between experience and new thinking, tradition and change, has heightened the possibility of unexpected results across the district.

Analysts believe that no candidate has a clear advantage in any of Mahottari’s four constituencies, and all seats could deliver surprising outcomes.