3.2% GDP growth estimated in 1st quarter

By Laxman Kafle,Kathmandu, Jan. 13: The National Statistics Office (NSO) has made a preliminary estimation of 3.2 per cent growth in the gross domestic product at the basic price in the first quarter of the current fiscal year 2023/24.

In the seasonally unadjusted quarterly GDP report made public on Thursday, the NSO has estimated an increase of 3.2 per cent in gross domestic product in the first quarter of the current fiscal year as compared to the first quarter of the previous fiscal year. As per the estimation of the NSO, the total value of mining and quarrying will increase by 15.8 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding period last year.

While the total value addition of sand, gravel and stone excavation, which is directly related to the construction sector, is relatively low, the projected increase of 11.4 per cent in the construction sector will have a greater impact on the production of this sector, said the report.

Similarly, the value addition of the financial and insurance sector is estimated to grow by 13.2 per cent.

According to the Office, the increase in deposits and loans, changes in inter-bank interest rates and increasing insurance premiums, among others have had a positive effect on the growth rate of the sector. Similarly, the accommodation and food service sector is expected to grow by 11.7 per cent during the review period.

The significant increase in the arrival of tourists during the first quarter of the current fiscal year has also had a positive impact on this sector.

The NSO estimated that the growth rate of the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector, which contributes the most to the economy during this period, would be 1.4 per cent during the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

The increase in rice production also contributed to the growth rate of this sector. However, the gross value addition of the wholesale and retail trade sector will witness a fall of 1.2 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding period last year, said NSO.

Although there has been a steady increase in overall imports, the growth rate of this sector has decreased due to the decrease in tradable goods.

Similarly, the Office has estimated the growth rate of the manufacturing sector by 1.3 per cent, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by 1.6 per cent, real estate sector by 2.2 per cent, administrative and support service activities by 8.8 per cent and human health and social work activities by 1.1 per cent, education by 0.8 per cent and administrative and support service activities by 8.8 per cent during the review period.

However, seasonally adjusted quarterly gross domestic product at the basic price is estimated to decrease by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year compared to the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year.

Looking at seasonally adjusted quarterly gross value addition, economic activities increased in 12 of the total 18 economic sectors in the first quarter of the current fiscal year (Shrawan, Bhadra and Ashoj) compared to the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year (Baishak, Jestha and Asar), said the NSO.

The production of six sectors saw a decrease during the review period.

During the review period, the Office estimated that the total value added in the water supply; sewerage, and waste management sector would increase by 7.3 per cent.

Similarly, it is estimated that the financial and insurance sector will increase by 6.7 per cent, public administration by 5.5 per cent, and the defence, information and communication sector will improve by 3.8 per cent.

On the other hand, due to the decrease in electricity production during the review period, it is estimated that the total value addition of the electricity and gas sector will decrease by 21.9 per cent.

The Office estimates that wholesale and retail trade, and construction will decrease by 8 per cent, mining and quarrying by 5 per cent, and the total value added of the industrial sector by 3.8 per cent during the first quarter of the current fiscal year as compared to the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year.