Sifting Through China Signals

Gleaning from a recent series of opinion pieces, including editorials, in China’s official news outlet for international audiences, the Global Times, some stunning shifts in priorities and new thrusts in diplomatic channels can be read. 

Sifting through news coverage and views floated through the Communist Party of China’s media, it is crystal clear that the next No. 1 economy is stepping up its diplomatic activity, among other regions, in South Asia. In a marked departure from its previously adopted low lying diplomacy and subtle messages, the tone and tenor of its messages, of late, to its competitors in the international arena are candid and, at times, sharp. 

Bhutan rarely figures in international news. More so when it comes to political affairs and notably bilateral relations. The recent times have witnessed some signs of subtle shifts in policy. China has jacked up its interests in the Himalayan countries of Nepal and Bhutan. It is digging up the past for the prevailing landscape and future perspective to develop its approaches to issues it considers vital. In the recent times, the Global Times, as China’s prime official news outlet for international audiences, has carried a series of opinion pieces on the two Himalayan countries. 

New thrust

The spurt in the interest taken by the giant communist neighbour that, according to international financial agencies, is heading for the world No. 1 economy by the end of this decade cannot be overlooked as merely a stroke of coincidence. That is not how official media, especially that of a one-party state structure, operates. 

It is no secret that bilateral relations between Nepal’s two giant neighbours are delicate — at times tinged by complex issues. Border disputes between the world’s two most populous powers can turn out to be flash points if not handled with the required care and diplomacy, as several incidents in the past three years have reiterated in no uncertain terms.

Hence the need to read also between the lines of what the Global Times mentions or leaves out. Unlike previously, Beijing seems to have weathered much of the sensitivity entailed by the Dalai Lama card, which, reported in the Global Times in its December 28 edition dismissed as “overplayed”. This comes not long after a section of the Indian print and broadcast news media carried contents suggesting that official recognition be accorded the so-called Tibet government-in-exile based in India, under the Dalai Lama’s patronage.  If India claims some 45,000 square kilometres of territory in Aksai Chin in the western sector of the border, which China occupied in the 1962 war, Beijing claims an area of around 90,000 square kilometres in the eastern sector, which it names as Southern Tibet. The Global Times claimed that some powers were working in tandem against China without any disguise, and also advised Nepal to be vigilant about its core national interests. 

Security concerns — real or imaginary — could have spillover effects on third parties. Should such issues aggravate, multiple powers could lay their claims over keeping harm at bay and protecting the “sovereign” rights of independent states. China seems to be keen to establish diplomatic relations with Bhutan, and cooperate in the diversification of Bhutan's industries as well as in the growth of Bhutan's hydropower installation which has remained largely flat in recent years. 

In October 2021, the Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs of China, Wu Jianghao, and the Foreign Minister of Bhutan, Lyonpo Tandi Dorji, signed the MoU on the Three-Step Roadmap for Expediting the Bhutan-China Boundary Negotiations, hailed by Beijing as a “milestone” representing a “significant improvement, which would help break the deadlock on boundary talks between China and Bhutan.”  Negotiations on boundary issues between China and Bhutan started in 1984 and previously had no breakthroughs after more than 20 rounds of talks. Bhutan treads carefully in order not to ruffle too many feathers while also ensuring its vital national interests in maintaining its independence as a sovereign state. It does not have formal diplomatic relations with any of the five permanent members with veto powers on the United Nations Security Council — an extremely rare situation. 

Wish list

The complexity of the prevailing conditions was reiterated when the troops of the two powers were engaged in clashes near Tawang in the eastern sector recently. This was two and a half years after Indian and Chinese soldiers were involved in hand-to-hand combat at the Galwan Valley in Ladakh border, in which dozens of casualties, mostly on the Indian side, were recorded. The recent times have also underlined the need for all nations — big or small, rich or struggling for faster development pace — to pursue policies with due deference to the changing power equations and emerging conditions whereby new alliances are likely to be forged in the days ahead. 

Although the 2005 Dhaka summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation paved way for the formal extension of membership to Afghanistan and an observer status to China, the world’s most-populous regional grouping begs for stepping up activity tailored to boost collective cooperation for the good of the people it covers. One of the poorest regions in the world, where numerous millions live in poverty amidst constantly high unemployment rates, South Asia is a large region with enormous potential for better quality of life for its teeming millions representing one-fifth of the world’s population. 

Decades of pledges to work jointly for the collective self-reliance and improved living standards for an average South Asian are yet to be translated into action. This echoes unflattering messages to all corners of the globe. Good governance should not be confined to lip service or rhetoric. Conviction and proactive determination should steer the course at a pace and result not achieved since so long.  At a time when the world witnesses gradual change in power equations heading for new alliances covering various issues and interests, it is expressly high time for political leaders to work in real earnest for ending stalemates and working for the common good of their people without compromising their core national interests. 

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)