Restore Enduring Peace

The news broke out Friday evening that Iran completely opened the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage through which roughly 20 per cent of oil supply passes to Asian and European countries, for commercial shipping up until the ceasefire deadline. It brought great relief to most people across the globe who have been hit directly or felt the heat of the war in West Asia. But the relief proved to be short-lived as it was announced on Saturday that the Strait was closed, apparently over continued US blockade of its ports and shifting conditions for a peace deal. 

Israel and the United States attacked Iran on February 28, aiming to topple the Iranian regime, make the Middle East safer and more prosperous by taming Iran, and prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state. Over 3,000 Iranian people, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, were killed in an unprovoked war spanning six weeks. Now the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has come to the front to chart Iran’s destiny. Although its naval power and military facilities suffered a huge blow, it has shown strength and resilience in retaliatory missile attacks on Israel and the US bases located in different Gulf States.  The oil and water supply infrastructure of Gulf nations has also borne significant damage. Even if the war ends immediately, it will take months or even years for the restoration of the infrastructure and ensuring a smooth supply of petroleum, LPG and chemical fertilisers. The International Monetary Fund has warned that US ally states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and others, face the prospect of reduced economic growth while the global economy may slide into a recession. And we don’t know whether Iran is willing to give up its 400 kg of processed uranium, which is enough to make 10 nuclear bombs. 

The war has had a disastrous impact on the energy supply chain all across the world. No wonder the price of petroleum and LPG soared, forcing many countries – Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines, to name a few – to begin rationing. Though Nepal has been spared a similar fate, ordinary citizens have begun feeling the pinch of the war and unless it ends quickly, the consequences are likely to be dire. The air fares have gone sky high, hitting the low-income strata of society. There is a disproportionate impact on the supply of chemical fertilisers as most of it is sourced from Gulf countries, and farmers in Nepal, who almost always struggle to get the fertilisers during the plantation season, are likely to be in higher distress this monsoon season. The government has been compelled to introduce a two-day weekly holiday to stave off the impact of the short supply of fuel.  

Let’s be optimistic that the ceasefire will conclude with a peace deal. Pakistan does deserve appreciation for its role in bringing the United States and Iran to face-to-face negotiations in Islamabad in nearly five decades. Though the first round of marathon talks last weekend failed at the last moment, the parties in conflict are expected to meet in Pakistan once again in a couple of days. Both sides have been claiming victory in the wrecking conflict, but history shows us that no one wins by waging wars. Iran has suffered unimaginable physical damage, while the United States seems to have experienced a dent in its soft power globally. So, it is in the interest of both sides, as well as the wider world, to end the war immediately and let peace prevail.