IPL: LSG in the way of RCB's top-two finish

By Vishal Dikshit (ESPN CRICINFO), May 27: Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) need not have watched the game between Mumbai Indians (MI) and Punjab Kings (PBKS) on Monday with a calculator in hand to see what kind of margin they need for Tuesday to finish in the top two for a straight shot into the IPL 2025 final.

No matter what the result on Monday night, RCB just need to win their last league game against Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) to reach 19 points that will guarantee them a place in qualifier 1, whether they finish on top or second.

If LSG win on Tuesday, though, RCB will finish third and play in the eliminator, like they did last year and bowed out of the tournament after a loss to Rajasthan Royals (RR).

What might scare RCB a little is that the teams eliminated from the playoff race have been beating the teams that have made it to the playoffs over the last four days. It was LSG who started that trend by taking down the table-toppers Gujarat Titans (GT) with a match-winning century from Mitchell Marsh. Nicholas Pooran's return to runs after a slump in between also bodes well for LSG, and so does the bowling of 6'4'' fast bowler Will O'Rourke, who has bagged four wickets in his two showings so far, after he came on as a replacement for the injured Mayank Yadav.

The day after LSG's last game, RCB had their four-match winning streak broken by Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH). Even though one loss doesn't make or break a team's confidence, RCB suffered a blow in that clash when their middle-order basher Tim David hurt himself while fielding in the deep, and is unlikely for Tuesday.

RCB will, however, be boosted by the return of their ace fast bowler Josh Hazlewood, who stayed back in Australia for his shoulder rehab when the IPL had resumed, and has joined the team ahead of the last league game.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru LWWWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)

Lucknow Super Giants: WLLLL

In the spotlight: Josh Hazlewood and Rishabh Pant

There are not many overseas bowlers who have taken IPL 2025 by storm, but Josh Hazlewood is among the small bunch. His metronomic bowling style, married with the T20 weapons of hard lengths, pace variations and yorkers, makes him one of the most feared fast bowlers in the competition. He is a potent weapon in both the powerplay and the death overs, and RCB will look to bank heavily on him, on both Tuesday and in the playoffs, before he heads to London for the WTC final.

Rishabh Pant is having his worst IPL season, be it in terms of runs, strike rate or average. In his last game, however, Pant gave glimpses of Pant of the old when he hit two sixes with his usual physics-defying positions he gets into by the time he finishes his shots. It could be because LSG had been eliminated from the playoffs, and we saw a carefree Pant with a nothing-to-lose attitude. LSG will hope he bats more like that on Tuesday, and he will hope he gets some more runs before flying out to London for the Test series as vice-captain.

Team news and likely XIIs

RCB will be forced to make a couple of changes. Hazlewood's return to the XI will be in place of Lungi Ngidi, who misses the last league game to fly back home for WTC final preparations with his national side.

The big miss will be David, who had scored 42 runs off 20 deliveries he faced in their last two games. RCB may not have a like-for-like replacement for him if he's unavailable, but they do have Liam Livingstone and Tim Seifert who was brought in as a replacement for Jacob Bethell for the remainder of the tournament, just like they have Blessing Muzarabani for Ngidi.

Both Seifert and Muzarabani have joined the squad. Their captain Rajat Patidar was only fit to bat in the last game, and he could continue to be their Impact Player if he has still not recovered to field.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 1 Phil Salt, 2 Virat Kohli, 3 Mayank Agarwal, 4 Rajat Patidar, 5 Liam Livingstone, 6 Jitesh Sharma (wk), 7 Romario Shepherd, 8 Krunal Pandya, 9 Bhuvneshwar Kumar, 10 Josh Hazlewood, 11 Yash Dayal, 12 Suyash Sharma

The main change LSG could make is bringing back Digvesh Rathi, who missed the last game because of his one-match suspension. If their opener Aiden Markram has returned home to prepare for the WTC final, LSG will need a new opener. Will Pant move up the order again?

They may also want to give chances to more players on the bench such as batter Matthew Breetzke, wicketkeeper-batter Aryan Juyal, batting allrounder Yuvraj Chaudhary, bowling allrounder Rajvardhan Hangargekar and batting allrounder Arshin Kulkarni who still haven't played a game this season, and Himmat Singh hasn't batted even once despite getting two matches this season.

Lucknow Super Giants: 1 Matthew Breetzke/Aiden Markram, 2 Mitchell Marsh, 3 Nicholas Pooran, 4 Rishabh Pant (capt & wk), 5 Ayush Badoni, 6 Abdul Samad, 7 Himmat Singh, 8 Digvesh Rathi, 9 Avesh Khan, 10 Akash Deep, 11 Will O'Rourke, 12 Akash Singh

Pitch and conditions

It's going to be a mixed-soil pitch for Lucknow's last game of the season, made up of red and black soil. That's usually a batting-friendly track. The last game played on that strip was between LSG and CSK when the hosts were restricted to 166 and MS Dhoni had taken CSK home. It's expected to be extremely hot in Lucknow on Tuesday, with temperatures going over 36 degrees Celsius, and a good amount of humidity too to make it more sultry. There is no rain in the forecast.

Stats and trivia

- RCB will have to find a way to stop LSG's overseas batters from hitting sixes: Marsh has struck the second-most sixes in the powerplay so far, whereas Pooran has the most in the middle overs

- Will RCB be brave enough to bowl Krunal Pandya to Pooran? Because Pooran also holds the record of most sixes against spin in this IPL, at 25, with 15 being the second-best. Pooran has hardly faced Krunal so far, having scored 25 off his 15 balls so far in the IPL without being dismissed yet

- RCB could become the first time in the history of the IPL to win all their seven away games, if they bag another W on Tuesday

- Virat Kohli is 24 away from 9000 runs for RCB overall, in the IPL and Champions League T20 combined