Syria On Cusp Of Transition

West Asia or the Middle East seems to be on the cusp of new crisis and conflict with the change of regime in Syria. The political developments in Syria emerged in such a lightning speed that surprised all. Even the deposed president Bashar Al Assad and also the rebel troops that forced Assad flee had not thought that the game would be up so quickly. But it happened in the lightning speed and as a result one more dictator has gone out of the political scene in the Middle East.

Syria is an important country in the Middle East from geopolitical standpoint. It is located in south-eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea which is a vital lifeline for the trade between Asia and Europe. In other words, Syria used to be popularly known as the intersection of Eastern and Western civilizations. However, Syria now appears to be at the crossroads of its own existence due mainly to a long history of suppressive regime of Assad family and factional fighting among different Islamic groups. 

Army's non-cooperation 

The 54 years rule of Assad family, which consisted 30 years of father Assad or Hafez al-Assad and 24 years of son Assad or Bashar al-Assad, came to an abrupt end. Father Assad came to power through a military coup in 1970 and remained in power until 2000 when he died and his son took over power in 2000. The Assad family’s brutal dictatorship in Syria has finally ceased to exist. Bashar al-Assad easily fled to Russia as Syrian army did not try to put up any obstruction against the small number of Islamic rebel group that advanced into Syrian capital Damascus without any resistance. Assad’s army in the final days did not seem to have cooperated with Assad as the army was weakened partly due to the constant Israeli assaults and factional by different kinds of armed groups and partly because of scarcity of resources.

Compared to Syrian Army, the rebel army was ill-equipped. Syrian Army was at one point most strong armed force. However, the incessant corruption and abuse of authority and family oligarchy had lowered the morale of government army and it could not even try to slightest attempt to resist the advancement of the rebel group. Syrian Army had long demanded with the government to make the army more resourceful. But political leadership did not pay heed to army’s demand to make it better equipped. As a result, Assad regime paid its cost and was finally forced to flee in disgrace.  Soon after Assad fled to Moscow, the Islamic rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took control over Damascus. Soon celebration started nationwide and political prisoners mostly critics of the Assad regime were freed from different prisons.  

Syria had been ravaged for a long civil war. Different Islamic groups controlled different parts of Syria for a long time. External powers also have their proxy rule over different sectors of Syria. These powers include Russia, United States, Turkey and Iran. Russia and United States have their military bases in Syria. Iran supports Hezbollah Shiite Islamic group that control part of Syria close to Lebanon border. Turkey backs one group of Syrians close to its border and uses them against the Kurds who are seeking to establish their own homeland called Kurdistan incorporating some parts of Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. US is backing one group of Syrians, while Russia had been a key supporter of Assad regime. 

Factional fighting and civil wars are common phenomenon in the Middle East. The year 2011 saw a new wave of uprisings and mass protests in Syria seeking to topple the Assad government. The 2011 Syrian movement was called the Syrian Revolution of Dignity. The mass protest shook the foundation of the Assad regime to a large extent. The protests had been backed by different political groups within Syria and some external powers. Assad government tried to crush the movement with the use of force but movement continued in different forms which finally forced Assad’s iron fist rule to crumble. The new development in Syria is definitely a welcome move. However, it is yet to be seen which course these developments would take Syrian politics. 

Given the track record of the rebel groups, there is a little room to expect sustainable peace, stability and democracy in Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has now taken over the reign of Syria, was once an al-Qaida affiliate in Syria and later merged with several Islamic rebel groups. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was once in the terrorist list of the United States. Syria suffered badly in the past due to factional fighting of different groups, repression of the Assad government and external attacks and intervention. Hundreds of thousand Syrians were killed while over 13 million people are estimated to have fled to other countries as refugees due to civil wars. Since the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has now renounced violence and expressed commitment for peace, human rights and democracy, Syria is now expected to see stability, democracy, peace and human rights.

Foreign powers' interest

Turkey, Iran, the United States and Russia still have their stake in Syria. Russia and the US have their bases and they have their own interests. Israel continues to attack in various installations of Syria. Therefore, peace and stability in Syria also depend on the behaviour and strategy of external powers as well. The demand for Kurdistan by Kurd ethnic group is yet another issue that may impact peace in the Middle East and more particularly in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran. It is said that Iranian officials had already informed Assad about the possibility of anti-Assad rebels making advancement into Damascus suggesting Syrian government to strengthen defence force.

 Iran’s concerns were valid as Syria’s defence system had been severely weakened because of continued Israeli attacks on Syrian army installations. However, Assad simply dismissed this possibility. Instead Assad asked for military and material assistance from Iran and Russia. But Iran and Russia had expressed their inability to provide additional military and material support. Syria is a recent example how dictators meet their fate no matter how long they are in power. History is witness that people’s power is invincible and recent case is Syria. But the new Syrian leadership is expected to take extra caution to ensure that Syria witnesses a smooth transition to democracy with the spirit of national reconciliation.

(The author is former chief editor of this daily and former ambassador. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com)