Consequences Of Israel-Hamas War

The violent attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7 has threatened to change West Asia into a new theatre of war. It has also revealed a tectonic shift in the geo-political alignment of regional and global powers.  As the governments and the people around the world express concern about the death and casualty of thousands of civilians during the escalation of attack and counter-attack between the warring sides, an unprecedented situation of humanitarian emergency has been created in the Gaza region. 

The Palestine- Israel conflict has been shimmering ever since the Jew state came into existence in 1948 by displacing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from their homeland.  The conflict between these two forces has centred around the control over Gaza Strip, the West Bank and Jerusalem area which both sides claim as being the seat of their holiest religious site - Al- Aqsa for the Arabs and Temple Mount for the Jews. Apart from major wars between Israel and Arab countries that took place in 1947, 1967, 1973 and 1985, the two warring sides have fought several wars in recent decades.  

Divided opinions 

The Israel-Palestine conflict has remained central and a complex factor in the geopolitics and stability of West Asia.  It has pitted Israel and the Arab world against each other and has polarised public opinions. Theoretically, the United Nations and other global powers have proposed two state solution of Israel-Palestinian problem. But in the absence of specific initiative to evolve a diplomatic framework for both the countries to exist and develop peacefully within their defined borders, this proposal has not gone beyond rhetoric.

So far, the United States has projected itself as the main actor in West Asian geo-politics.  But it has failed to build consensus on any acceptable and lasting solution of the conflict because of its overt political, military and economic support for Israel while turning blind eye to the devastation, death and misery among the Palestinian people. This policy of the US has embolden  Israel to design its defence architecture based on overwhelming military superiority  that has only  radicalised Palestinian society, paving the way for the emergence of ferociously  radical forces like the Hamas and the Hezbollah.  

The ongoing Hamas-Israel war has shifted the global geo-political spotlight to the Middle East once again. The massive popular demonstrations going on in the major American and European cities in support of either Israel or Palestine indicate deepening fault lines in the emerging geo-political world order. The visible and invisible alignment of emerging global and regional powers has proved that the USA and European countries are no longer in a position to dictate the course of global events.    

China and Russia have made entry into the central stage of international politics as military and economic super powers exerting strong influence in the geo-politics of West Asia and Africa also. China has increased its engagement in Africa and West Asia, opening new avenues of cooperation with oil-rich nations of the region. It is investing heavily in developing economic corridors and connectivity through the implementation of Belt Road Initiative (BRI) projects. It has notched considerable diplomatic successes in building alliance between Saudi Arabia and Iran, contributing a lot in deescalating proxy wars in the region. These emerging powers together with Turkey are presenting themselves as strong a factor in the geo-political configuration of this region. 

In this interdependent and interconnected world, no political actors, however powerful, are at liberty to take arbitrary course of action.  Over dependence on one superpower remaining oblivious of the overarching power dynamics, may lead to an unforeseen predicament similar to the one Ukraine has found itself in because of its over confidence on NATO-US alliance. The recent violent attack of Hamas resulting in the death of 1,400 Israelis and the abduction of more than 120 civilians was an act of mindless misadventure which has boomeranged upon itself in the form of equally brutal air attack by Israel on the Gaza region. After devastating much of the infrastructures by air bombing, Israel has ordered one million Palestinian people to move from the north Gaza region to southern border. The unprecedented scale of eviction order has threatened to create an equally unparalleled humanitarian emergency. 

The disproportionate reaction of the Israeli army has not only caused the death of more than 3,000 people but has also left a large number of people without water, electricity, foods and healthcare. The US, NATO countries and India have vocally sided with Israel, whereas China, Russia, most of the Arabian and north African countries have expressed their solidarity with the Palestinian people. Iran, most vocal enemy of Israel, has openly praised Hamas and has reportedly incited Hezbollah to mount attack on Israel from the north.  Apart from Iran, Syria, Libya, Turkey and Bahrain have taken sides of Hamas.

Remote actors

In a war, there are always not winners and losers only. There are other remote actors who could tweak the course of events remotely to reap unforeseen benefits at the expense of those who are directly affected in the conflict. Great powers have the tendency to manipulate historical accidents to serve their purposes. They exaggerate facts and distort perspectives.  Joe Biden has described the attack of Hamas on Israel as ‘the worst massacre of the Jews since the Holocaust’ while Vladimir Putin is said to have framed Israeli bombing and eviction of Palestinian  citizens in Gaza  as ‘the siege of Leningrad during the Second World War’. 

These are exaggeration of truth which represent diametrically opposite world views but they are strong enough reminder of the depth of humanitarian crisis which the ongoing conflict has brought to the people of Israel and Gaza region. The gruesome ground reality and the tones and tenors of public reaction indicate that Israel and Hamas are already on a trajectory of prolonged and mutually destructive war.  In order not to let it spiral into a wider proxy war of the type of Ukraine and Syria, the conflicting parties must cease hostilities and allow space for the entry of dialogue and diplomacy.

(The author is former chairperson of Gorkhapatra Corporation and former ambassador of Nepal to Qatar.)