Winter most likely to remain dry this year

Kathmandu Jan. 23: Are you planning to play the snow in Fulchwoki, Chandragiri and Nagarkot this year? Your targets may not be fulfilled as there is less chance of snowfall in the highlands and rainfall in the lowlands this winter. It’s almost the third week of January, which is regarded as the coldest month of the year. Until now, winter remained dry throughout the country. Most areas have not received precipitation in the last three months with the start of the pre-winter season. 

According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the average rainfall should be 60.9 mm within three months of winter – December 1 to February 28. However, the country has received only 0.1 mm of precipitation during this one-and-a-half months of the season. It should have rained at least 17.16 mm during this period. Last year, the country received 27.1 mm of rain during this period and 74 mm of precipitation during the three months of winter, said Dr. Indira Kandel, Senior Divisional Meteorologist in the Climate Change Analysis Section under the DHM.

According to Dr. Binod Pokharel, Associate Professor at the Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Tribhuvan University, the system has remained complicated this year. It might not be as cold as previous years as half of the winter season has already passed. “It was due to La Nina (climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide), which has reduced the sea temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean and increased the temperature in the Indian Ocean. This system has continued for the last three years,” Dr. Pokharel said. "There has been more activity on the Sri Lankan side,” he added.

According to Dr. Pokharel, there is a chance of good rainfall from Friday to Monday in the Valley. The two models are active – westerly disturbance (bringing less moisture) and other moisture coming from the Arabian Sea, which is bringing good moisture and helps precipitation in various parts of the country including the Valley, he said. The system will enter from the western part of the country on Tuesday. 

The system will accompany thunderstorms in the western part of the country. “The forecast is not consistent this time, it has been changing,” he added. With the long period of dry spell, every sector has been suffering and it has also hampered agriculture production and water sources. He said that the upcoming system somehow will help to moisturise the ground, but that might not be sufficient, Dr. Pokharel said.

There might be more forest fires like in 2021 if there is no precipitation, Dr. Kandel said. Most places have not received rain since November, she added.

According to Dr. Kandel, a dry spell in winter is not a new phenomenon in the country. The winter of 2006 remained dry and received only 7.1 mm of precipitation. After that, 2009 also remained dry and only 9.7 mm of rainfall was measured. Only 15.4 mm of rainfall was measured in 2020.

Barun Poudel, a senior meteorologist at Meteorological Forecasting Division under the DHM, said that the system was noticed to be active a few days back but by today it has weakened again. “The system keeps changing,” he added. Only a few Himalayan districts in the western part of the country received snowfall this winter, he said. The lowest temperature in the Kathmandu Valley this year was measured at 2.5 degrees Celsius on January 7.