ASEAN Expands, SAARC Shrinks

The 47th summit meeting of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur formally admitted Timor Leste (East Timor) as its 11th member.  Initially, five countries - Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand came together in 1967 and formed ASEAN at the height of Cold War 1.0 to face the growing threat of communism in Southeast Asia. Indonesia is the largest economy in the region, and covers over 42 per cent of ASEAN’s land area. 

Timor Leste (Portuguese name for East Timor)- strategically located between Australia and Indonesia and positioned to act as a bridge between the Pacific and Southeast Asia had applied for ASEAN membership in 2011 and was granted observer status in 2022.  It formally joined ASEAN with a USD 3.98 trillion economy and a market of almost 700 million people. 

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East Timor was a Portuguese colony for over four centuries before declaring independence in 1975. Available records show that the United States didn’t oppose the Indonesian invasion of East Timor that came at the height of the Cold War. Indonesia occupied it for 24 years, during which conflict, famine and disease claimed tens of thousands of lives. A UN-supervised referendum in 1999- formally called “popular consultation” paved the way for independence, which was formalised in 2002. 

East Timor President Ramos Horta said the accession is “the achievement of a lifelong goal.” To Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, with accession to ASEAN, “history is made”- the beginning of an inspiring new chapter. “This is not only a dream realised, but a powerful affirmation of our journey-one marked by resilience, determination and hope,” he added. While ASEAN expands, its South Asian counterpart, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) - the largest regional cooperation organisation - comprising seven nations - Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka - established in 1985, with a population of nearly two billion people - and a combined economy of approximately USD 4.9 trillion (with India contributing over 80 per cent), - is struggling to survive. Afghanistan joined SAARC in 2007.  

South Asia is a region of great diversity. It reflects a complex and multifaceted landscape of interstate relations.  Any discussion of South Asia begins with India and ends with India. India has a Neighborhood First policy. All SAARC members are its immediate neighbours sharing land and maritime borders.  India accounts for well over two-thirds of SAARC’s area, three-quarters of its population, and nearly four-fifths of its GDP. It is four times larger in area than the next largest country, Pakistan.  India’s ongoing social, economic and technological transformation makes it central and indispensable for regional cooperation in South Asia.  

At a time when the rise of India is closely watched, the attention on the region and by extension on SAARC is prominently increasing. SAARC has been a victim of territorial tensions and rivalries between India and Pakistan. Cross-border terrorism has hit their relations. The emerging geopolitical landscape is adding layers of complexity to already existing tensions. With SAARC in deep slumber since the 18th Kathmandu summit in 2014, the resulting vacuum has paved the way for yet another fertile ground and fueled existing nurseries of outside intervention. India’s rise and global standing will not be free from challenges. 

South Asia needs a regional cooperation framework to address multiple challenges confronting the region. SAARC must proactively remain engaged for navigating environmental, geopolitical challenges, including security, connectivity and technological issues. A comprehensive solution within the framework of the SAARC can help clear the pile of accumulated challenges and secure regional stability and sustainable growth.  Only by working together and understanding each other better can countries break the tentacles of mistrust and prejudice. 

At a time when Asia has come to be 'the world's brightest spot for the 21st  century,' providing 'amazing and unprecedented commercial opportunities, the region sits on a heap of accumulated challenges-old mindsets and prejudices, chronic instability, recurring crises, growing mistrust, and possible eruption of wars. This has aided the spread of religious, ethnic, regional and separatist tendencies, creating multiple flashpoints. 

SAARC relevance is an undeniable fact. There is absolutely no alternative to harmonious coexistence, interdependence and interconnectedness.  Not only physical connectivity but also mental connectivity is necessary to overcome old mindsets and prejudices. At the height of the COVID-19 crisis, SAARC leaders had a virtual meeting in 2020 that demonstrated its relevance, legitimacy, and credibility.  A decade-long sidelining of SAARC has gravely eroded the SAARC process and its institutional credibility. Reiterating commitment without commensurate actions brings no benefit to the region. 

Regional cooperation is fully consistent with the UN Charter to which all countries in the region remain committed. They have been actively participating in its proceedings.  Articles 52 and 53 of the UN Charter provide regional arrangements as long as they are consistent with the principles and purposes of the UN Charter.  The SAARC Charter adheres to the principles of the United Nations and non-alignment. It is no exaggeration to say that the world’s destiny lies in collective hands. “India has the capacity to become a superpower,” Kissinger said. The revival of SAARC will assist India’s rise, and India’s rise to prominence, in turn, will benefit its neighbours. 

Shifting geopolitical landscape

The concept of ASEAN centrality guides the regional cooperation, dialogue and security architecture among its member states. Major powers like the US, China, India, Japan and the EU engage with ASEAN member states through ASEAN frameworks. At a time when there is fierce competition between the US and China, as both expand their presence across the region,  ASEAN serves as a cushion for its member states, helping them manage and navigate a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. ASEAN centrality has helped avoid taking sides in great power rivalries, making it a hub of regional diplomacy. 

Why one region in Asia, which confronts no fewer inter-state challenges, succeeds in advancing regional cooperation, while another region of equal weight and importance with similar challenges continues to shrink, remains a profound intellectual challenge to ponder.  Napoleon Bonaparte reportedly said, “The world suffers a lot, not because of the violence of bad people, but because of the silence of the good people.”

(The author is a former ambassador)