Venezuela In Geopolitical Entrapment

As  Russia-Ukraine war continues to grow fiercer, and the Israel-Iran sabre rattling edges closer to renewed escalation amid fragile peace, a third front in global conflict appears to be emerging in South America - between the United States and Venezuela. 

The United States has declared that it is "in armed conflict with drug cartel" being run by Venezuela. But Venezuela has repudiated the drug war as a false flag, saying that the real cause of conflict is that the US is not happy with Caracas trying to chart out an independent course of development without compromising its sovereignty over the use of its national resources.  

Conventional Tool 

In contrast, the Trump Administration maintains that Venezuelan President Nicolas Madhuro had come to power by rigging elections with the support of powerful drug cartel. As a result, he still continues his narco-nexus to maintain a cross border supply- chain of illegal drugs posing security threat to the US and subverting its economic interests.

Drug trafficking is a long standing problem for many Latin American countries but these countries say that the US has been using drug trafficking as a convenient tool to intimidate their governments and  interfere in their internal affairs over and over again. 

In 1989, the US had invaded Panama to remove its ruler Manuel Noriega accusing him of running a drug trafficking network. The US has also repeatedly involved itself in Colombian affairs through aid agreements shaping Colombia's internal policies.

Thus, the drug supply controversy has remained a major issue in the relation between major South American countries and the US for decades. This time, however, the dispute between the US and Venezuela is threatening to escalate to open hostility. The US has mobilised its naval force against what it calls illegal boats suspected of involving in narco-terrorism. 

As of October 24, 2025, 43 people are reported killed in the US military strikes on these boats.  Venezuelan President Madhuro has refuted the US accusations of complicity in narco- terrorism. He believes that the US has brought the issue of drug trafficking to legitimise its interference in Venezuela's internal affairs. 

Venezuela is the sixth largest country in South America with an area of 916,445 square kilometers and sits atop the largest proven oil reserve in the world. It is also endowed with precious minerals like gold, diamond and rare earths coveted by many energy deficient countries.  Traditionally, the US has been buying oil and precious mineral in base price to serious disadvantage for Venezuelan economy. 

The United States has been doing this invoking the Munroe Doctrine of 1823 which specified Western Hemisphere as its sphere of influence, denying European countries any right to interfere in this region. The Munroe Doctrine was formulated during the period of colonisation, but the US continues to consider this region as its backyard incontestable by any other powers. 

With the rise of China, Russia, India and Iran as new global and regional powers, however, the unipolar dominance of the US is being challenged.  Taking cue from the shifting locus of power, the South American countries are trying to diversify their economic potentials through multilateral partnership. 

In 2023, China upgraded its relation with Venezuela to an "all weather strategic partnership" committing to support it to resist external interference and unilateral sanctions. Similarly, Venezuela signed a strategic partnership treaty with Russia also in October, 2025. 

Russia is reported to have supplied fighter jets TU- 160 and S-300 air defense systems to Venezuela in the face of growing military pressure from the US. This is being interpreted as Russia's intention to project its power in the Western Hemisphere as a counter balance to the US. 

 In the fast emerging multipolar world reality, the seemingly localised and asymmetric conflict between the US and Venezuela carries the potential of turning into prolonged war of attrition like the Russia-Ukraine war. Such a possibility looks more realistic in view of the potential engagement of powers like China and Russia, India and Iran in South American affairs.

As the US administration pushes the narrative of war against the drug cartel, Professor of Colombian University,  Jeffrey Sachs, has debunked  it revealing that  the US was out to change the regime in Venezuela camouflaging the initiative as an anti drug operation. According to him, the US has tasked CIA to carry out covert operations inside Venezuela and even put a $50 million bounty on    head.

In face of growing US threat, there are reports of the Venezuela government's preparation for resistance. Madhuro is said to have called upon his people to prepare for patriotic war. Analysts view that if war does break out, the left leaning countries like Cuba, Columbia, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Brazil etc. might form an alliance with Venezuela making the conflict more intense.

Failed Strategy 

Historical experiences show that coercive regime change can never yield solution to inter-state conflict. The humanity has already faced devastating consequences of regime change in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen. 

To repeatedly invoke failed strategy exposes inability of the world powers to learn lessons from history. In the opinion of Colonel Douglas McGregor, drug trafficking, if it is the real problem, can be tackled by enforcing control measures inside the US border, not by invading Venezuela, which has less contribution to drug trafficking than Columbia and Mexico. There seems to be logic in his analysis. The mobilisation of the strongest army of the world to deal with drug cartels, may look like using artillery battery to destroy a colony of ants.

 (Dr. Bharadwaj is former ambassador and former chairperson of Gorkhapatra Corporation. bharadwajjnarad@gmail.com)