Economic growth for current FY estimated at 4.61%

Kathmandu, May.1: Nepal’s economy is estimated to grow by 4.61 per cent in the current fiscal year 2024/25.

According to the Annual National Account Statistics for the fiscal year 2024/25 made public by National Statistics Office (NSO) Wednesday, the country's economic growth will be 4.61 per cent at purchasers' price for the current fiscal year.

Similarly, the gross domestic product (GDP) in basic prices will be at 3.99 per cent in the current fiscal year.

The government, through the budget announcement for the current fiscal year 2024/25, had projected to achieve economic growth rate of 6 per cent. However, the NSO has made preliminary estimates that the economic growth rate would be lower than the target set by the government.

Similarly, according to the data, the economic growth rate at purchasers' prices in the last fiscal year 2023/24 has been revised to 3.67 per cent, while the economic growth in the fiscal year 2022/23 has remained 1.98 per cent.

At base prices, the economic growth rate for fiscal year 2023/24 is revised to 3.36 per cent, while the economic growth rate for fiscal year 2022/23 is estimated at 2.29 per cent.

Chief Statistician Madhu Sudan Burlakoti said that the economy has shown steady improvement over the past few years, recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“All sectors are expected to show positive growth this fiscal year, unlike in the previous year where some sectors experienced negative growth,” he noted.

He said that the growth estimation has been made expecting that no major economic shocks are anticipated during the remainder of the fiscal year, signaling continued stability and gradual progress.

Size of economy to reach Rs. 6,107 billion

According to the NSO, the size of Nepal's economy is estimated to reach Rs. 6,107 billion in the current fiscal year 2024/25. 

In the last fiscal year 2023/24, the size of the economy is revised and estimated to be Rs. 5,709 billion. 

Similarly, the size of the economy in the fiscal year 2022/23 has been maintained at Rs. 5,376 billion.

The statistics show that agricultural sector is estimated to grow by 3.28 per cent and the non-agricultural sector by 4.28 per cent in the current fiscal year.

According to the revised statement, the growth rate of the agricultural sector is estimated to be 3.25 per cent and that of the non-agricultural sector to be 3.36 per cent in the last fiscal year 2023/24. 

It showed that the growth rate of agriculture sector has been declining and the growth rate of non-agriculture sector is increasing.

In the current fiscal year 2024/25, the growth rate of primary, secondary and service sectors is estimated at 3.25 per cent, 4.65 per cent and 4.21 per cent respectively. 

According to the revised statement, the growth rate of primary and service sectors would be 3.35 per cent and 4.35 per cent respectively in the last fiscal year 2023/24. Meanwhile, the growth rate of secondary sector is estimated to be negative by 0.03 per cent in the last fiscal year.

The primary, secondary and service sectors are estimated to contribute 25.6 per cent, 12.4 per cent and 62 per cent respectively to the gross domestic product in the current fiscal year.

Per-capita GNI to be USD 1,517

According to the NSO, the gross national income per capita is estimated at USD 1,517 in the current fiscal year 2024/25.

For the last fiscal year 2023/24, the gross national income per capita is revised to be USD 1,467.

The gross national income per capita has been maintained at USD 1,410 in the fiscal year 2022/23.

According to the NSO, the GDP per capita is estimated to be USD 1,496 USD in the current fiscal year 2024/25. 

Per capita gross domestic product has been revised to be USD 1,443 for the last fiscal year 2023/24. 

According to revised statistics, per capita GDP has been maintained at USD 1,393 in the fiscal year 2022/23.

Similarly, in the current fiscal year 2024/25, the gross output at basic prices is estimated to be Rs. 9,246.55 billion. In the last fiscal year 2023/24, as per the revised estimates, the total gross output is estimated to be Rs. 8,780.77 billion. 

In the meantime, in the current fiscal year 2024/25, an intermediate consumption in consumer price is estimated to be Rs. 3,866.96 billion.  

The NSO has initially estimated that gross fixed capital formation will be 24.07 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal year 2024/25.

The estimate has been revised that total fixed capital formation would be 24.33 per cent of GDP in the previous fiscal year 2023/24. Gross fixed capital formation has been 24.59 per cent of GDP in the fiscal year 2022/23.

Similarly, it is initially estimated that gross national savings will be 36.24 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal year and worker's remittances will be received at 25.32 per cent of GDP.

All sectors of economy post positive growth 

The electricity and gas sector is estimated to register the highest growth rate of gross value-added (GVA) in the current fiscal year 2024/25, followed by the transport and storage sector.

The electricity and gas sector is estimated to register a gross value-added growth rate of 13.82 per cent, while the transport and storage sector 9.45 per cent.

Similarly, the gross value-added growth rate of agriculture, forestry and fishery sector is estimated to be 3.28 per cent.

According to the statistics, the preliminary estimation of gross value-added growth rate of the mining and quarrying sector is 1.99 per cent, industry sector is 3.78 per cent and water supply, sewage, waste management and recycling activities sector is 2.09 per cent. 

Similarly, in the current fiscal year, gross value-added growth rate of the construction sector for the current fiscal year is initially estimated to be at 2.21 per cent, wholesale and retail trade at 3.30 per cent, accommodation and food service at 5 per cent, information and technology sector at 4.81 per cent, financial and insurance sector at 6.29 per cent, and real estate sector at 2.72 per cent.

The NSO has estimated that the total value-added growth rate of the public administration and defence sector is 2.24 per cent, education sector is 1.98 per cent and health and social activities sector is 4.77 per cent in the current fiscal year.