Is Trump’s Peace Plan Making Headway?

It is now Ukraine, not Russia, that is pouring cold water on US President Donald Trump’s peace plan to end the more than three-year-long Russia-Ukraine war, which Russia claims is a 'special military operation’. Trump wants to seal a lasting peace accord between the two countries within his 100th day in office, which he will complete on April 30. After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected the US proposal to recognise Crimea as Russian territory and give up his bid for NATO membership, Trump has accused him of prolonging the “killing field” and making “very harmful” statements. This will further worsen the already soured ties between Washington and Kyiv. 

Trump continues to put pressure on both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy to end the war and save the lives of countless people. However, frustrated with Zelenskyy’s disregard for its peace proposal, Washington's top authorities are running out of patience. They have been warning that the US will stay clear of mediation between Russia and Ukraine if its efforts for the negotiated settlement go belly up. In his latest comment, Trump said that he had no allegiance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In his interview with Time magazine, he said Crimea would stay with Russia, a remark Ukraine and its allies are not ready to accept. Visibly, Washington is not in a mood to push the peace plan for a long time and will shift its priority to improve bilateral ties with Russia, stopping all military and financial support to Ukraine and making the latter fully rely on its European partners.  

Criticism 

In the face of criticisms that the US proposal is favourable to Russia, the US is expected to press Russia to acknowledge Ukraine’s right to maintain its military and defence industry as part of a future peace accord. One goal of Russia’s military offensive was to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine, which is inclined to become a NATO member. The US peace deal seeks to "freeze the territorial lines (...) close to where they are today." Based on the realistic assessment, Trump has already disclosed that it would be very difficult for Ukraine to take back Crimea and an agreement to end the war will stop Putin from taking over the entire Ukraine, which can be a ‘big concession’ for Ukraine. 

Crimea, a strategic peninsula located along the northern coast of the Black Sea, has received a new spotlight as the US and Russia are making a final push for the peace deal. Crimea became a part of the Russian Federation on March 18, 2014, following a referendum in which 96.77 per cent people in the Republic of Crimea and 95.6 per cent in Sevastopol voted to secede from Ukraine to join Russia. However, Ukraine and the West have not recognised the ‘annexation of Crimea’ where 77 per cent inhabitants identified Russian as their native language, according to a 2001 census. The Russian side insists on the legitimacy of the plebiscite, citing international laws and founding UN documents. It has repeatedly said that the question of Crimea’s status has already been settled and it cannot be a topic of a peace deal. 

The US proposal reportedly recognises de jure control of Crimea by Russia and de facto Russian jurisdiction in the Luhansk region and partially the Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. It has proposed granting a neutral status to the territories around the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), with Washington managing it. According to Reuters, other points of the truce plan include: a permanent ceasefire will be enforced and both sides will immediately start negotiations on technical implementation, Ukraine will be kept out of NATO but it may seek EU membership and sanctions against Russia will be lifted.

Similarly, Ukraine will get reliable security guarantees from a special group of European states and willing non-European states, the US and Ukraine will implement an economic cooperation/mining agreement and the US and Russia will forge economic cooperation in energy and other industrial sectors. However, Ukrainian and European officials have brought counterproposals to push back against the US plan. Both proposals differ on the issues related to territorial control, sanctions, security terms, compensation, and the future of Ukraine’s military and reconstruction.

Meanwhile, writing on his Truth Social, Trump said most of the major points were agreed to during the talks between his special envoy Steven Witkoff and President Putin in Moscow on Friday. The talks have paved the way for the high-level talks between the two superpowers shortly. Putin aide Yuri Ushakov termed the three-hour conversation as "constructive and very useful." The two sides also underlined the need for creating an atmosphere for direct talks between Russia and Ukraine. According to Pravda, Putin has agreed to Trump's plan on all points, given the intelligence data about the EU and Ukraine's rejection of it. Russia has seen it as a document of compromise to restore peace. But some analysts doubt the successful implementation of the plan, with the exclusion of Ukraine and the EU. 

Proxy forces 

The idea of holding dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv is quite rational in ending the ruthless war, as it keeps the proxy forces off the table. The military confrontation began following a series of provocative actions of the elements hell-bent on triggering the proxy wars between Russia and Ukraine. The US caveat that it will take its hands off the peace plan if the two warring parties fail to strike a permanent ceasefire needs to be seen in the changing context. Now, the US influence on Ukraine and European allies is diminishing as London and Paris are egging on Ukraine to toughen its posture and snub the US peace plan.  

The EU, the UK and Ukraine have undermined an important fact – when the US leaves the peace process and stops supplying money, and arms, and intelligence sharing, Russia’s position will be further bolstered on the battlefield and Ukraine may lose more territories. Moreover, Russian domestic politics and economy are supportive of Putin's government – he has engaged all parties in the negotiation process, the economy is thriving despite sanctions and war, the Russian army is advancing on the front and volunteers are enlisting in the army. This is indeed bad news for the Transatlantic Alliance, which is severely falling through with the start of Trump's second presidency. 

 (The author is Deputy Executive Editor of this daily.)