Govt in process to finalise NDC 3.0

Kathmandu,March 1: The government is in the process of finalising its third Nationally Determined Contribution, known as NDC 3.0, which outlines the country’s climate action commitments made under the Paris Agreement.

As part of the process of finalising NDC 3.0, the Ministry of Forests and Environment gathered suggestions and held meetings with experts and civil society representatives to identify key issues related to the impact of climate change. These consultations aimed at enhancing urban climate resilience and ensuring that relevant concerns were effectively addressed.

While the specific details of Nepal's NDC 3.0 are yet to be disclosed, the discussions reflected a commitment to inclusive and comprehensive climate strategies that prioritise urban resilience and youth engagement, according to Dr. Maheshwar Dhakal, Joint Secretary and Chief of the Climate Change Management Division under the Ministry of Forest and Environment.

Nepal's Second NDC, submitted in December 2020, outlines the country's commitment to addressing climate change by 2030. It covers various sectors, including agriculture, energy, transportation, forestry, and waste management, focusing on both mitigation and adaptation strategies.

NDC 3.0 will continue to prioritise four sectors, namely energy, agriculture, forestry and land use, waste, industrial processing and products, setting more ambitious targets to be achieved between 2025 and 2035 with both conditional and unconditional targets. It will hold every ministry accountable and involve all three levels of government, ensuring a comprehensive and coordinated approach to climate action, Dr. Dhakal said.

In NDC 2, Nepal aims to ensure that 15 per cent of its energy demand is met through renewable energy sources by 2030. The country plans to have 25 per cent of households using electric stoves as their primary cooking method by 2030. Similarly, the country targets 90 per cent of all private vehicle sales to be electric by 2030 and the development of 200 kilometres of electric rail network is planned to support public commuting and mass transportation of goods by 2030.

The country also committed to maintaining 45 per cent of its total land area under forest cover. NDC 2 also sets an ambitious target to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. All provincial and local governments are expected to prepare and implement climate-resilient and gender-responsive adaptation plans by 2030, ensuring that adaptation efforts are inclusive and effective. 

According to Dr. Dhakal, no additional targets will be included in NDC 3.0, but all existing targets will be further refined based on the sectoral policy targets. “The target for forest cover has already been achieved, with the country reaching 46 per cent forest cover. Progress in the energy sector is also on track. The government aims to produce 15,000 MW of electricity by 2030, with 5,000 MW generated by the government and the remaining produced through support from private and international organisations,” he said.

“The government has already increased production from 1,800 MW to 3,500 MW, and by the end of the year, it is expected to reach 5,000 MW. 

The targets in the NDC were set in alignment with the goals of the Ministry of Energy,” Dr. Dhakal explained.

He further said that the targets are aligned with the objectives of the relevant line ministries because climate change is a cross-cutting issue.

Progress in the EV sector is also comparatively better than in many developed countries. “We are contributing positively on track to phase out fossil fuels,” he said.  

Therefore, this is right time to analyse the co-impacts of the target in upcoming NDC 3:0, he said.  “To implement the NDC properly, as Nepal has insignificant contributions to GHGs emissions, less capacity to cope with the climate risk and vulnerabilities, we need international support for access to climate finance, advanced technology and capacity building.” 

Another important aspect of addressing the impact of climate change is increasing the budget allocation. The country’s 16th five-year plan states that only six per cent of the national budget is currently climate-relevant, but the goal is to increase this to 20 per cent by 2030, Dr. Dhakal said.

The target for submitting NDC 3.0 was set for the end of February 2025. However, we are privileged to submit it by the end of this year, as Nepal is still classified as a least-developed country with a significant mountainous region, he added.

Climate change expert Dr. Bimal Regmi said that with the U.S. withdrawing from the climate change treaty and major donors reducing their contributions -- such as Belgium, which initially committed 0.7 per cent of its GDP to developing countries, contribution of donors has decreased from 0.5 per cent to 0.3 per cent, and meeting the targets of the NDC is not feasible.

Ninety per cent of the targets in the second NDC are conditional, meaning they can only be implemented with international support. Given this situation, the NDC should prioritise adaptation rather than mitigation,” said Dr. Regmi.

He stressed that the NDC should be practical rather than overly ambitious. “During the review, only 30 per cent of the targets from NDC 2 have been achieved. Setting unrealistic targets will not solve the problem. Issues concerning youth, marginalised communities and loss and damage must be included,” he added.

As of February 28, 2025, only 13 out of 195 parties to the Paris Agreement have submitted their NDCs, detailing their climate action plans through 2035.