US Faces Threats To Its 'Supremacy'

Joseph S Nye Jr. is one of the well-known US scholars in American foreign policy and international relations. He is said to be among the Kennedy School’s most popular and respected teachers. He is famed for coining the term “soft power” to describe an alternative strategy that leaders and nations can pursue to achieve political or foreign policy objectives. In fact, soft power is a strategy that works by shaping preferences, priorities and interests rather than using economy as “carrots” or military “sticks.” Nye served in the US Defense Department during the Clinton administration and in the State Department during the Carter administration. 

In this closely contested  election year of the US where Donald Trump of Republican party and Kamala Harris of Democratic party are pitted against each other, Joseph Nye’s memoir titled, "A Life in the American Century", has stole the academic limelight.  New Atlanticist – a platform for foreign policy experts  published on behalf of the Atlantic Council has carried a fragment of the Nye’s memoir recently which throws an interesting light on the characteristic of the  'American century’. As recounted by Nye, he has been a witness to the eight decades of an American era that included World War II, Hiroshima, and wars in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. 

Unipolar world

The Cold War ended without the nuclear catastrophe that hung over mankind’s heads, but it was replaced, in the words of Nye, by a period of hubris for Americans as the United States became the world’s sole superpower. That unipolar world characterised by US domination has been replaced by fears of transnational anarchy and cyber wars. Analysts today speak about a new cold war with a rising China and fear of nuclear escalation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Our mental maps of the world have changed dramatically. For those eight decades, according to Nye, we have lived in what TIME publisher Henry Luce, in March 1941, named “the American Century”. 

In the nineteenth century, the global balance of power was centered in Europe, which sent its imperial tentacles around the world.  At that time, the United States was a smaller player with a military not much larger than that of Chile. As the twentieth century began, the United States became the world’s largest industrial power, and accounted for nearly a quarter of the world economy.  When US President Woodrow Wilson decided to send two million troops to Europe in 1917, the United States tipped the balance in World War I. But afterwards, the United States “returned to normal” and, in the 1930s, became strongly isolationist. It is more accurate to date the American century, as argued by Nye, to US President Franklin Roosevelt’s entry into World War II in 1941. 

It was in that context to end Wilsonian isolationism and urge participation in the war, that Luce had coined his famous “American century” term. It is more accurate to think of the American century as the period since World War II during which time the United States has remained as the preeminent power in global affairs. The United States remains the world’s strongest military power as well as the largest economy, but since the 2010s China has become a near-peer economic competitor. Nye remarks that the greatest danger Americans face is not that China will surpass, but that the diffusion of power will produce a kind of entropy, or the inability to get anything done.

According to Nye, China is an impressive peer competitor with great strengths but also weaknesses as well. In assessing the overall balance of power, Nye contends, the United States has at least five long-term advantages over China. The first clear advantage the US has is its geography. The United States is surrounded by two oceans and two friendly neighbours, while China shares a border with fourteen other countries and is engaged in territorial disputes with several of them. The United States also has an energy advantage, whereas China depends on energy imports. Third, the United States derives power from its large transnational financial institutions and the international convertibility of the dollar.

The United States also has a relative demographic advantage as the only major developed country that is currently projected to hold its third place in the global population count. Seven of the world’s fifteen largest economies will have a shrinking workforce over the next decade, but the US workforce is expected to increase. Finally, the United States has been at the forefront in important new technologies including nano technology and information technology. China, of course, is investing heavily in research and development and scores well in the numbers of patents. All told, as the American political scientist remarks, the United States holds a lead in this great-power competition.

Polarisation 

Even if US remains dominant in external power, according to Nye, due to internal polarisations and value erosions, US can lose its internal importance and attractiveness. Political polarisation is a problem in US, and civic life is becoming more complex. As highlighted by the political thinker Nye, technology is creating an enormous range of opportunities and risks that our grandchildren will face as they cope with the internet of things, artificial intelligence, big data, machine learning, deep fakes and so on. 

And even larger challenges are approaching from the realms of biotechnology, not to mention coping with climate change. Moreover, the economic challenge the US faces is much more serious. Economically, China has made significant headways as the US trade deficit has increasingly become high. Thus, US advantages, political scholar Nye claims, may not last for long not only due to the stronger economic rise of China but also gradual emergence of several economic, political and strategic centres of power in today’s multipolar world.  

(The author is presently associated with Policy Research Institute (PRI) as a senior research fellow.  rijalmukti@gmail.com)