Global Eyes On Five Elections

Mixed speculations grip the world order. At stake is the mantle of global leadership, hegemony and monopoly in agenda-setting. Credible history exposes hidden wickedness, nursed even by the high and mighty. Terrible as they are, hypocrites, among historians and record keepers, who juggle facts for narratives tailored to suit their ulterior motives. Massive changes were known to be in the making since the early phase of the new millennium. But only in recent years have the shifting sands of traditional world order been reluctantly and partially acknowledged by geo-strategists and analysts of world affairs that hog the space in the international media.   

National priorities, primarily guided by security interests and economic benefits, are the elements of core focus for all countries. Who gains how much, under what conditions and with which ties are factors determined by military power, industrial base, market, geography, natural resources and individual vulnerabilities. As the noted political analyst Robert McChesney wrote nearly a decade and a half ago, there is a fundamental presupposition that guides US foreign policy, which was by and large accepted by “official sources” in both Republican and Democratic parties. It was almost never questioned in major US news media. “The notion was that the US is a benevolent force in the world keen on making the world a more just and democratic place.” 

Significant series

In a world with 193 member states at the United Nations, many countries will have parliamentary and presidential elections in 2024. This is something normal rather than an exception in the new millennium. Of special note to observers in this part of the globe is that three South Asian and two other superpower states—Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Russia and the US—face election exercises under interesting circumstances from next week to November.

Bangladesh braces for parliamentary polls on Sunday amid reports of intimidation and violence adversely affecting the democratically required atmosphere of free expression. The first among the four countries that go to national elections this year is Bangladesh. Its general election is scheduled for Sunday. Prime Minister Hasina Wajed’s Awami League heads a grand alliance while the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotts the “farce”. This means Awami League’s landslide victory is almost a certainty.In power since 2009, Prime Minister Hasina Wajed’s Awami League is widely expected to be declared winner even as the opposition parties loudly protest against grievous harassment, imprisonment and misuse of state machinery. Wajed had a previous stint as the head of government from 1996 to 2001.

Former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, serving a prison sentence on conviction of charges of corruption, continues to inspire BNP. In fact, thousands of BNP members have been thrown into jail. In office without a break since January 2009, Wajed has been prime minister for 15 years, in addition to her previous term from 1996 to 2001. Hers is a South Asian record. 

On February 8, Pakistanis will vote a new parliament, in which Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, Pakistan Muslim League (N) and Pakistan People’s Party are seen as the major groups to have the largest presence. All three parties have had serious brushes with the military that toppled their elected prime ministers at different times since the 1990s. Overt or covert support from the army could prove crucial for the eventual shape of government.

In March, Russians vote for presidency, which even persistent critics of President Vladimir Putin seem to surrender to the highest probability of the incumbent retaining the top job for six more years. For credible opinion polls have consistently indicated Putin’s popular approval rating at no less than 70 per cent—something his counterparts in Europe and the Americas envy.

That would mean Putin remaining in power for 30 years without a break for all practical purposes. Boris Yeltsin, who supervised the collapse of Soviet Union, the world’s first communist state, was widely appreciated in the capitalist West for the role played. He abruptly stepped down on December 31, 1999, making way for his vice-president to take over the vacated post. Yeltsin made a pact with Vice-President Putin to step down a year before his second term was to complete in exchange for immunity to him and his family from any investigation.

Shortly after donning the hat of the executive head, Putin issued immunity rights to his predecessor and consolidated his power base in the ensuring 12 months to the extent that he won the next two terms of four years each. Since constitutional ceiling prevented him from a third consecutive tenure, he backed his close ally Dmitry Medvedev’s to the high office and chose to serve as prime minister from 2008 to 2012. Four years later, Putin returned contested and won the presidential contest and later amended the Constitution enabling him to contest not only in 2024 but also in 2030.

In the November 20 election, the US might witness a rematch between former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden. Surveys suggest Trump to have a runaway lead over the few candidates seeking Republican Party ticket, with a lead margin of more than 50 per cent against the nearest aspirant. In the Democratic camp, will Biden summon adequate stamina for the marathon campaign to the November 20 contest or will he be persuaded to step aside for a younger candidate?   

India’s parliamentary polls, according to analyses in some of the leading Western news media, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is most likely to steer his Bharatiya Janata Party to a third consecutive victory in April-May. 

Awaited record

The hattrick would match what the Congress led by founder Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru achieved after independence in 1947. It would mean Modi leaving office in a blaze of glory both at national and international levels, given the opportunities he is heaped upon. He pledges his party to lift India to the group of developed nations by the year 2047, which marks the centenary of the country’s Independence Day. 

In a bid to offer the prime minister a tougher fight, the Congress and 27 other opposition parties have formed a coalition grouping whose chief objective is “oust BJP”. The tie-up has named itself as Indian National Developmental Inclusion Alliance (INDIA). The election campaigns and the eventual results this year in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Russia and the US generate keen and close attention among political observers and analysts across the world, given that the five also account for 27 per cent of world’s total population.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)