In US, Old Not Necessarily Gold

With just about 11 months to go for the presidential election in the United States, debates among analysts are high over the prospects of a rematch between the incumbent Joe Biden and his predecessor at the White House, Donald Trump. Latest public opinion polls indicate a victory for Trump by a margin of four percentage points if the election were held now.  

Barely a quarter of American voters believe that the 81-year-old Biden has the sharp reflexes and stamina required to discharge his duties as the world’s most powerful nation. More than twice that number consider Trump, four years his junior, to be in a better shape on this score, at a time when 72 per cent of the people find the country doing badly.  

Age as a factor

Perhaps not since Donald Reagan in the 1980s has a candidate’s age become such a big issue of debate. Reagan was 69 years when he obtained the Republican Party’s ticket in 1980 and was 77 when he completed two terms in January 1989. He was the oldest president to make his debut at the White House, until Trump bettered him and Biden shattered the record that might stand for long. 

During the campaign — or, rather a live TV debate — the Democratic Party candidate, Vice-President Walter Mondale — did try to raise the age issue but Reagan nipped the topic in the bud with his succinct retort: “I will not make age an issue in this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”  

Opinion polls showed that he would have won a third term if the constitutional ceiling did not prevent anyone from serving for more than two terms. It was a testimony of Reagan’s popularity and Teflon image that propped up his public image fairly high, notwithstanding some dubious decisions he made, such as the Contragate, heavy budget deficit and growth in inequality. Ever since Biden declared his intention of seeking four more years in office, his Democratic Party is virtually locked without a choice because of the precedent of an incumbent president being almost automatically given the ticket for reelection.

If Reagan made light of his elderly status, the tone between the likely 2024 candidates 40 years later has changed in demeanour. Trump labels Biden as the “sleepy” one in reference to the fast slide in the latter’s agility. Biden’s coterie displays an utter dismay over the former president’s “extreme ideology” that “threatens the very foundation of our republic”.

Many Americans despair over the level of language lowered these days. What’s “un-American” today becomes presidential tomorrow, contribute some acerbic comments. The two face a situation similar to the one they were confronted with four years ago. Only their individual positions are reversed. If Trump was in the presidential chair, Biden is in the seat today. 

Blatant digression from the topically pertinent has become the name of the game and newer times. Wokeism and free speech works both ways as is the case with a doubled-edged knife, be it in the political landscape or some other arena. The US is split somewhat vertically since November 2020, when Trump rejected the poll outcome and accused his opponents of fraud. His supporters invaded the Capitol in violent protest. Two-thirds of committed Republican voters uphold the same view in the concluding fortnight of 2023, too.

For instance, analysts point out that Biden now seems to be Trump-like on migrants’ issue, with his eyes set on the next big contest. Three years ago, Biden came down heavily on Trump’s policy. The attitude reverse, even without acknowledging so, comes to the public notice, which could drive people in large numbers to the Trump support for at least sticking to his ground.

Trump’s increasingly “authoritarian” attitude and isolationist aptitude puts off many a people whereas his supporters applaud his confidence and decisive approach to crucial issues. He wants Europe to foot the bill for its common security umbrella instead of pushing for a free ride.

Going by American press reports, the “Trump Card” played a key role in the Republicans replacing the Democrats as the majority party at the House of Representatives in the mid-term polls last year. The nail-biting finish meant only 49 seats for the Democrats as against 48 seats for the Republicans and three independent candidates in the 100-member Senate.  

Be that as it may, Trump faces a series of court cases against the violent activity that his supporters engaged in three years ago. If it is any consolation for the Trump camp, Biden’s son, 52, faces serious charges of illegal and unbecoming activities, including drugs, prostitutes, girlfriends and ostentatious display of wealth accumulated through easy routes facilitated by his proximity to his father. 

Art of dodging

During the 1988 presidential campaign, Vice-President George H. Bush was heckled and disparaged by anti-Republican voters by chanting a sarcastic line on the standard position that the outgoing VP took with regard to the more than dubious methods that President Reagan took to funding Nicaragua’s pro-West Contra militants who were fighting leftist groups. 

Did the VP make any suggestions or submit reservations? Veteran Senator Edward Kennedy summed it up at the 1988 Democratic Party’s Convention — that Bush “was either not there or he simply could not hear” during the related meetings under Reagan at the White House. 

The Senior Bush’s was typical of a politician dodging difficult issues and penetrating questions. Some manage to survive seriously difficult situations while others get trapped in embarrassing conditions that ruin their career or find themselves behind bars. Every now and then, Congress members have faced the music.

An early front-runner in 1988, Democratic ticket hopeful Gary Hart left the contest midway when the press caught him with a woman who “was not his wife”. The press acted on the tipoff provided by an anonymous source. Righteous disinformation campaigns by and against political rivals are not new. No rival camp will leave any straw of a scandal that could place opponents in acute embarrassment and perhaps even worse. 

Elections are essential in a democracy; and so is the presence of political parties in any multiparty polity. But these are not everything for a functioning democracy. Rule of law indiscriminately shakes any crook without a second look, whatever the culprit’s existing public reputation or pretension. 

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)