Equation Shift In Koshi

Following many twists and turns, the protracted political crisis in Koshi Province has now come to an end. With the appointment of Kedar Karki, a rebel lawmaker from Nepali Congress, as the sixth Chief Minister of Koshi Province, the looming mid-term polls have been averted for the moment. After taking the oath of office and secrecy at Province Chief's office on Sunday, newly appointed CM Karki said that he was committed to working together with all sides in consensus. He also asserted that the formation of the government under his leadership precluded the possibility of snap polls. He has appointed Ram Rana from the CPN-UML and Shumsher Rai of NC as ministers. Karki became the CM with the support of 39 lawmakers of UML and NC’s eight rebel lawmakers. But a clear picture of the provincial politics will come to the fore only when Karki gives a full shape to his three-member cabinet and secures the vote of confidence in Provincial Assembly.

Karki became the CM as per Article 168 (5) of the constitution, sidelining the official candidate of coalition parties - Indra Angbo of the CPN-Maoist Centre. As he was sure to win the race for the CM, the ruling alliance accepted him at the eleventh hour.  He is close to the party’s anti-establishment faction led by Dr. Shekhar Koirala. Prior to his election, Dr. Koirala had expressed his commitment to the ruling alliance and inked a deal with Prime Minister and Maoist Centre Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda and party president Sher Bahadur Deuba. They endorsed Karki as the candidate of the alliance. The three leaders also agreed to bolster the alliance in the province. PM Prachanda said that the attempt to break the alliance was finally foiled. However, this deal has made the UML have some suspicion on Koirala. 

Contrary to the expectation of PM Prachanda, Karki inducted a UML lawmaker into his Cabinet. Karki is for forming a consensus government but the UML is against the idea, arguing that it should be an NC-UML joint government. It has opposed the participation of other ruling allies – the Maoist Centre and CPN-Unified Socialist. Despite being a NC lawmaker, Karki was elected to the post with the backing of main opposition UML. This is where he holds contradictory position, impelling him to walk a political tightrope. He has to take the UML and the coalition parties into confidence simultaneously. If the UML hardens its stance, Karki will land in difficulty. If he fails to appoint minsters from the allies other than the NC, the establishment faction may not join the government, upsetting the apple cart. 

The political instability in Koshi Province began to surface after UML’s Hikmat Karki-led government fell into minority, with the collapse of UML-led coalition involving the CPN-Maoist Centre in the centre. The Supreme Court had invalidated the two governments formed after Karki’s exit from the government. The composition of Koshi Provincial Assembly also exacerbated the coalition politics. The ruling coalition does not enjoy a majority in Assembly and has to rely on other parties. Making and breaking of one government after another often put the eastern province in the radar of national politics. This also set bad precedent of provincial politics under the federal set-up. The political parties need to demonstrate their prudence to institutionalise the federal system and overcome the public frustration arising from the instability seen in the province.