Why forecasting of pre-monsoon so difficult

By A Staff Reporter,Kathmandu, Mar. 18: It seems predicting weather is the most difficult task for Meteorological Forecast Division (MFD), especially in the pre-monsoon season.

The MFD has been predicting showers in many parts of the country almost every day in recent days, but rains are often rare in many of the predicted areas. 

According to Pratibha Manandhar, a senior meteorologist at the MFD under the Department of Hydrology and Metrology, the weather forecasting model covers the larger area and could not forecast the pre-monsoon showers accurately all the time as isolated showers are the features of rains this season. 

"If the weather remains clear in the morning, there will be chances of an isolated thundershower in the evening and during the night, so it will be hard to predict these kinds of systems," she said. The Valley mostly receives isolated rain most of the time and it will be difficult to predict rainfall as a whole, she said.

Presently, the country has a general influence of westerly winds along with local winds. 

On Friday, there was partial to general cloud cover throughout the country. Brief thundershowers are likely to occur at some places in the hilly regions of the country and a few places in the rest of the country including Kathmandu Valley tonight, tomorrow and Sunday, the MFD said.

“At present, many parts of the country are receiving partial to normal shower, and light rain with thunder and lightning is occurring at a few places in Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati and Lumbini Provinces,” Manadhar said Friday evening. The present disturbance is likely to remain until Sunday and will bring occasional light to moderate rain with thunder, lightning, and storm at a few places in the hilly areas of the country and a few places in the Terai, the MFD said.

Meanwhile, Dhangadhi of the Kailali district received rainfall on Friday morning. It was the second light shower of the pre-monsoon season.

The pre-monsoon rains have saturated the lentil (Musuro) of the farmers. Farmers are currently harvesting and importing lentils.

Syangja received the highest rainfall measuring 69.5 mm in the last 24 hours.

Meanwhile, of the 113 rainfall measuring stations across the country, two centres measured above 20 mm and one station measure 40 mm in the last 24 hours.  

According to MFD, Gothikanda station in Karnali received 43.4 mm and Dailekh received 36 mm rainfall in the last 24 hours. Similarly, Lele, Tamghas, Ratanangla in Surkhet and Bara all received above 20 mm shower during this period.