UAE official says '50-50' chance of US-Iran agreement on Hormuz strait

PRAGUE, May 22, 2026 (AFP): The US and Iran have just a "50-50" chance of reaching an agreement that would free up the Strait of Hormuz, a senior UAE official said on Friday.

Presidential adviser Anwar Gargash urged Tehran not to overplay its hand in the stop-start negotiations during the Middle East war's fragile ceasefire.

Iranian officials "have missed a lot of chances over the years because there's a tendency to overestimate their cards", Gargash told the GLOBSEC Forum in Prague.

"I hope they don't do that this time."

The oil-rich UAE, which hosts US military facilities, was targeted by about 3,300 drones and missiles during 40 days of war from February 28 onwards, Gargash said, with only around four percent getting through.

He said the Iran-blockaded Hormuz, which normally carries a fifth of global oil production, must go back to normal, and cautioned against an inconclusive ceasefire.

"Negotiations just to reach a ceasefire and sow the seeds for further conflict in the future is not what we're seeking," he said.

"And I think that the Strait of Hormuz clearly has to go back to the status quo and this should be an international waterway."

With US negotiators focusing on Iran's potential development of an atomic weapon, Gargash said: "The Iranian nuclear program was our second or third worry, now it's our first worry."

"We see that Iran is capable of using any weapon that it has in its hands, which is what we learned," he added.