Can Balen, Rabi Create Alternative Force?

With Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balen Shah taking a plunge into national politics, an alternative political force is emerging. Shah has suddenly pulled the political gravity toward himself after holding marathon consultations with the leaders of different political parties and civil society members on Wednesday and Thursday. The hours-long parley between Rabi Lamichhane, president of the Rastriya Swatantra Party, and Balen created a sensation in the political spectrum. This new political development has become possible following Rabi’s release from police custody on bail on December 18.

There has been a growing call for the unity or alliance between Rabi, Balen and Kul Man Ghising, who is now a patron of Ujyalo Nepal Party and a Minister in the interim government of Sushila Karki, to form an alternative force to counter the established political parties such as Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and the newly formed Nepali Communist Party. Balen commands the backing of the majority of Gen Z youths who overthrew the Nepali Congress and UML governments in September. This has made him a powerful figure that soared his ambition to become the executive head of the country.

Crucial figure 

Former rapper and engineer, Balen was a crucial figure behind the power-sharing talks in the aftermath of the Gen Z revolt. Gen Z youths had proposed that Balen lead the interim government following the collapse of the KP Sharma Oli government but he turned down the offer. However, the political development unfolded in a way as if he had orchestrated it. Writing on his Facebook wall, he had instructed the protesting youths to sit for negotiations with the army chief only after the dissolution of the House of Representatives. The House was eventually dissolved at the recommendation of the newly appointed Prime Minister Karki. It was surmised that the parliament where the mainstream parties hold sway would undermine the spirit and agenda of the Gen Z revolt. 

The new polarisation began to take shape after the Butwal bench of the Tulsipur High Court ordered the release of Lamichhane in the Supreme Cooperative fraud case. As he came out to the public, he addressed a huge gathering of people in the Chitwan district, from where he had won the parliamentary election in 2022. Then, he held intensive parleys with Balen and agreed to project the latter as the candidate of Prime Minister in the general election slated for March next year. In their internal deal that is yet to be formalised, Rabi will be senior to Balen in a hierarchy within the political party. 

As per the report, Balen will have no problem in contesting the polls under the RSP election symbol ‘bell’, which was already endorsed in the last elections. Within a short span of the establishment of the party, the RSP rose to become an important political force in the country. It was set up in June 2022 and clinched a sensational victory in the polls held five months later. It bagged 20 seats (13 seats in proportional representation and seven in first-past-the-post categories). With his powerful oratory, Rabi succeeded in winning the hearts of voters. As major political parties have been mired in one corruption scam after another, the people preferred an alternative force that would ensure democratic order, good governance and effective service delivery.

If Balen, Rabi and Kul Man go to the polls by uniting their parties or forging an alliance, Nepali politics shall see a structural shift. First of all, their unity may break the syndicate of major political parties that have been in power for decades. In the name of ‘saving the constitution, Loktantra and gains of past political movement,’ they continue to form coalition government and capture state’s positions and resources by appointing their loyalists in courts, constitutional bodies, universities, diplomatic missions and other vital institutions based on bhag-banda (divide and share). Their joint monopoly has obstructed desired reforms in governance, politics and the economy. 

The Balen-Rabi-Kul Man alliance will create an atmosphere conducive to the upcoming polls, ending uncertainty, confusion and security dilemma. The Nepali Congress and UML, which were ousted by the Gen Z revolt, are now unpopular in the eyes of the masses. They want to avoid polls and reinstate the House through the Supreme Court verdict. As the leaders of the then-ruling parties go to the voters, they will face a serious question: who was responsible for the deaths of 76 people? There will be no escape route for the then rulers to parry the query. If they fail to own up to the responsibility, the voters will give them a fitting reply at the ballot box. 

Seismic impact 

Despite its seismic impact on Nepali politics, the Gen Z movement appears to be directionless, with some Gen Z groups backing the government while others hitting the streets. The Balen-Rabi-Kul Man alliance will provide the much-needed leadership to the divided Gen Z movement, legitimising and institutionalising its gains. Many Gen Z youths, including Sudhan Gurung and Raksha Bam, are desperate to see Rabi, Balen and Kul Man move shoulder to shoulder and unite their movement. 

Rabi, Balen and Kul Man are in a position to ride on the wave of their popularity and benefit from the public resentment and rage against the orthodox establishment. They can clinch an incredible victory if they fight the election under a single political party and election symbol. The traditional parties may deride the emerging forces of resorting to ‘populism,’ but it has been the trend of old guards to accuse the new parties of being populist and immature to hide their own incompetence, malfeasance and betrayal of the promises. Nepali politics is now passing through an exciting moment. The onus is on the new forces to honour popular sentiments and prove their mettle in unifying the fractured society and bringing realistic changes in the lives of the ordinary Nepalis.

(The author is the Deputy Executive Editor of this daily.)