Syria Stands At A Crossroads

The collapse of two decade long Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria marks a turning point in the country's internal politics. However, its broader implication on the geopolitical landscape of West Asia and the world remains uncertain. Syria, a conflict-ridden country struggling for stability after surviving the popular insurrection in 2011, has succumbed to a complex interplay of regional geopolitics and multiple internal challenges which it was battling against overwhelming odds.

The global community has responded to the historic event with mixed reaction. The western liberal democracies, including the United States have hailed it, describing it as an outcome of concerted efforts from the democratic world to dismantle the authoritarian dynastic Assad regime which had ruled Syria since 1970. Meanwhile, Russia has stated that Assad has resigned and sought asylum in Russia following negotiation with various actors involved in the Syrian conflict. China on the other side, has only appealed the new authorities in Damascus not to harm the Chinese institutions and citizens.

Vacuum 

However, the evolving dynamics of Syria suggests that the withdrawal of Assad regime from the scene has created a vacuum, turning the nation into a battleground for a mix of internal stakeholders and external powers. These forces are now vying for influence, seeking to establish footholds for securing a buffer for them in the event of multi-front rebellion which might erupt to fill the void left behind by the fall of the Assad regime. 

The 13-year-long Assad regime has dissolved in a weeklong armed insurrection orchestrated by a relatively less known Islamic armed group called Hayat Tahriq al-Sham(THS), which is considered an extended arm of the Taliban, once Labelled by the the USA and the EU as a terrorist organisation. The group's leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has said that his regime will allow Christians and other religions to practice their faiths. But it is too early to predict how orderly and organised the new regime will be in view of the background of Jolani's past association with ISIS and Taliban.

The HTS, which was cornered in Adlib, a small town in north Syria following the 2011 uprising, primarily, with support of Russia, made a surprising resurgence with Turkey's tacit support and supply of munitions. The comeback occurred at critical juncture when Russia was over stretched in its war with Ukraine and another of Assad's ally, Iran, was also in a weakened position because of aggressive strikes by Israel against its proxy, the Hezbollah, leaving it in disarray.

Unsurprisingly, both Turkey and Israel are claiming credit for decisive support that turned the tide in favour of the rebels, seeking to secure their share in the victory. Turkey has already captured the area along its border under the control of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which it considers another version of Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) which is fighting against Recep Tyyp Erdogan's government. Similarly, Israel has also ordered its troops to create a buffer zone between the Golan Heights and the Syrian border. Rather than paving the way for lasting peace, Syria's current revolution appears setting the stage for a new battle configuration in the war-torn West Asian country.

The situation appears more alarming in the context that Russia and Iran, major supporters to Assad regime, have accused Turkey of breaching Astana Process, initiated in 2017 in Astana, Kahakstan for reducing violence, fostering dialogue and eventually achieving a peaceful political solution of the Syrian crisis. Russia, Turkey and Iran were the main guarantor of the process. The unilateral intervention in support of the Syrian rebel groups' effort to topple Assad regime militarily, is likely to provoke a counter military action from opposition rebel groups with support of Russia, Iran and, inevitably, Iran's proxy group the Hezbollah. The growing mobilization of rebel groups which is already visible along the Syrian border with Iraq and other regions paints a grim picture for the prospects of Syrian peace.

While the Assad regime may have fallen, it remains to be seen whether the organisers of the current revolution are able to create a strong and inclusive framework for collaboration that accommodates the the aspiration of various minority identities - Shias, Sunnis, Alawites and Kurds - which are eager to lay claim on  their share of power. Given the fractured internal politics of Syria and the conflicting interest of regional and global powers, the prospects for putting such an arrangement in place appears increasingly bleak. 

Exacerbating the already grim situation, Israel has been bombing military depots of the former Assad government with a view to further erode the military capability of the remnant pro Assad forces that might reassemble to upend the gains of the Syrian revolution. Meanwhile, the United States is also bombing what it calls ISIS positions to prevent their resurgence, exploiting the situation of power vacuum that exists in the region. The situation is Syria is, therefore, not something that gives cause to rejoice.

Psychological trauma.

Syria is devastated and broken by over more than six decade of the tyrannical rule of Assad dynasty. More than 500,000 people have lost their life in the conflict since the Arab Spring uprising of 2011. About 15 million people have been displaced, 6.8 million of them are internally displaced and 6.6 million live as refugees in foreign countries. According to reports, approximately 90 per cent people live under the poverty line and Syrian conflict has cost an estimated $1.2 trillion. Health system of the country lies ruins, millions of children are deprived of education and both children and adults are suffering from widespread psychological trauma.

The road ahead for Syria is fraught with challenges. Despite occasional military victory, no power will be able to keep together the fractured and deeply divided social, economic, religious and political landscape of the country. A cohesive system capable of pulling this West Asian country out of the present crisis seems distant. Only a sustainable peace agreement among the internal political factions with international backing and economic support can bring about reconciliation and heal societal divisions. This would provide the pathway for the fragmented state to rebuild and reintegrate into the community of free nations.

 (Dr. Bharadwaj is former ambassador and former chairperson of Gorkhapatra Corporation. bharadwajnarad@gmail.com.)