Lessons From Bangladesh Upheaval

The culmination of seemingly spontaneous students' movement of Bangladesh in a nationwide revolution, overthrowing Sheikh Hasina Wazed challenges the conventional belief that historical legacy, economic growth and stability are the safeguards against revolution The generally accepted view of revolution is that revolutions take place when leaders lack historical legacy and legitimacy, the populace faces a period of economic downturn and the country is caught into a trap of instability. But in the case of ongoing turmoil in Bangladesh, none of the above factors appear to be at play.

In recent years Bangladesh was sharing an inspiring story about its development and economic growth transmitting signals that it was successfully reverting back from the post-COVID-19 downturn. Its strong garment export base, resilient remittance and stable macroeconomic condition were projecting continued rejuvenation of its economy. It was on track of graduating from the UN's LDC status in 2026 and the sign of prosperity were visible in the society. In view of its stable economic growth, it was being referred to as an 'Asian Tiger' in the making.

Economic resurgence

Sheikh Hasina Wazed was at the helm of state since 2009. Since then she fought three elections though not without the controversy of rigging and irregularities. During the past decade, especially under her leadership, Bangladesh's progress in building mega infrastructure was unprecedented. The completion of 6. 12 km long bridge over Padma River stands as a monumental achievement in the history of modern Bangladesh. The bridge has established strong trade connectivity between India and Bangladesh and is being showcased as a symbol of Bangladesh's economic resurgence. 

Similarly, Dhaka Express Metro Rail, funded by JICA, has brought about a significant change in the urban mobility and in modernising outdated transport infrastructure of the country. Additionally, the Dasherkandi Sewage Treatment Plant Project, Dhaka Elevated Expressway Project, and the Port of Payra-built with assistance from China - are some of the iconic achievements credited to political stability of Bangladesh. But suddenly, against all expectations, a massive revolution shook the political foundation of Bangladesh over the past few weeks just when it was accelerating on the highway of economic growth. Now, the global thinkers, intellectuals and analysts are left wondering why this happened. What underlying factors were at play to bring about this?   

The transitional history of Bangladesh reveals that what has happened in Bangladesh was the cumulative result of an unhealthy competition between two dynastic ruling families: Sheikh Hasina Wazed of Awami League and Khalida Zia of Bangladesh National Party. Before 2009, these two ladies contested election under a caretaker government and ruled Bangladesh alternately. However, when Sheikh Hasina won election in 2009, she changed the rule of the game and started to hold election under her own government against the established practice of organising polls under a neutral government. Ever since, election observation institutions have raised concerns about the credibility of election. 

The latest election held in January 6 this year was declared a total sham by the international observers and democratic governments. Sheikh Hasina disqualified Jamaa t-e-Islami Party from contesting election while the main opposition the Bangladesh People's Party boycotted the election questioning its fairness. This provided Sheikh Hasina a clear path to electoral victory but not without stiff opposition.

Sheikh Hasina managed to garner technical victory but clearly failed to win the hearts and minds of the Bangladeshi youths, who were feeling increasingly left out and disenfranchised Sheikh Hasina advocated communal and religious harmony, pledging protection of minority Hindus and allowing them to celebrate their festivals like Durga Puja with government backing. This approach fueled resentment among the majority Muslim community. Some of them even depicted her as an incarnation of goddess Kali in the graffiti reflecting their anger and hostility.

She was also being accused of consolidating authoritarianism and weakening of democratic space. According to former editor of the Indian Express and analyst Shekhar Gupta, her party workers had filed 4 million cases against BNP leaders and cadres. So much so that Mohammad Yunus, the 2006 Nobel Laureate and founder of Grameen Movement had also 171 cases against him. Sheikh Hasina had refused the request of 106 global scholars including Nobel Laureates to drop legal cases against Yunus. 

Among all the factors, the issue of reservation was the most inflammable issue acting as the last straw that broke the camel's back. Young and ambitious youths believing in meritocracy were increasingly frustrated with the widening clientele of reservation beneficiaries. The situation escalated when the Bangladesh Supreme Court decided in June to extend the reservation to the grand children of the 1971 freedom fighters. This decision sparked the revolt. Sheikh Hasina inflamed the situation by questioning, "If the children and grandchildren of freedom fighters do not deserve, who deserves the reservation the Rajakars, the collaborators who fought for Pakistan"?

Referring to the agitators as the "Rajakars" further fueled the public anger. The demonstrators quickly owned up the word and started shouting "Who we are who we are, we are 'Rajakars (collaborators); who you are who you are you are Swechhechar (dictator)! The rule of Sheikh Hasina has come to an end. Online reports indicate above 20 of the senior leaders of Awami League have been lynched by the mob in the wake of Hasina's departure. More than 200 people are reported killed during agitation and thousands of others wounded. The trail of destruction is evident for all to see. But, as the dust settles, the more harrowing side of the turmoil may yet come to light. 

Beyond the death and destruction, the events in Bangladesh offer a crucial lesson for young democracies in Asia. They highlight how even democratically elected leaders can drift to authoritarianism ignoring the sentiments, ambitions and aspirations of their youth population. Additionally democratic leaders may unintentionally create a personality cult to cling to power unaware of brewing discontent around them. The alarming development in Bangladesh underscores the need for the democratic leaders to keep attuned to the pulse of the people while navigating the way forward.

 (Dr. Bharadwaj is former ambassador and former chairperson of Gorkhapatra Corporation. bharadwajnarad@gmail.com.)