Ties That Bind China, Russia

In a show of solidarity, President Xi Jinping of China and President Vladimir Putin of Russia reiterated their deepening bilateral relations when the two met in Moscow last month, shortly after Xi obtained an unprecedented third term in office. Beijing sees in Russia a partnership that could help check Western attempts at weakening China and its development strides. Moscow, too, see multiple advantages in building strategic rapport with Chinese counterpart. China had abstained from a United Nations general assembly vote that called for Moscow to withdraw from Ukraine.

The leaders of the two superpowers could presage a more explicit declaration for a swift peace plan for the war which otherwise would complicate the already complex relations between the Russia-China team and the US-skippered West. If China seeks a role to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, it could generate a degree of credibility and earn support from some European capitals for its bid. 

High stakes

Beijing has a great stake in maintaining close ties with Moscow while, at the same time, checking any dip in the relationship with the West that distrusts both Xi and Putin. It’s tough calling for a balancing act under the increasingly complicated rivalry but essential to be addressed just the same. In case Beijing does decided to coordinate peace talks, Washington would be in test whether it is keen in witnessing Ukraine inflicting a bleeding wound on Russian pride it was eager for a settlement without any more delay. 

Both Beijing and Moscow need each other at a time when the West clearly fears the rise of China as a strong counterweight to the US-Europe combine. China’s increasing success in advanced space and AI technology plus more is highly disconcerting for a group that for nearly eight decades led the world agendas most of the time. Growing cooperation between Russia and China — both superpowers and neighbours sharing a long border — would seriously pose a serious threat to the decades of Western dominance in world affairs and international economic agendas. 

As the world wonders where the West went wrong and triggered tectonic shift in power equations termed the traditionally dominant as “global order”, there are early signs of a multipolar world. The type of dominance by two superpowers seen earlier is improbable in the next decade or two.  With opinion in major power capitals divided over the Ukraine war, now accelerating in its 14th month amid fears that the armed conflict could get prolonged, some European leaders are taking different stances. If a few take a tough line against the incursion of Ukrainian territory by Russian troops, there are others that want a quick negotiated settlement in order to end the pain and losses Europe’s poorest country is suffering, and offer relief to even the richest countries in that part of the world. 

European people have found their pockets depleted because of a significant jump in oil and gas price while prices of consumer items, too, rising at a pace not recorded since years. But most governments basically maintain a stony silence. Among them are those that regretted the Russian invasion but have distanced from taking any proactive stance thereafter. Analysts in Europe and many in Asia and Africa hint of the United States not being keen on backing initiatives for peace negotiations. 

Washington’s habit of dubbing rival powers as “axis of evil” spewing volumes of venom against rival capitals won’t hurt the target much any longer. Power blocs contradict themselves glaringly when they engage in contradictory actions. Invading and supporting other countries while fiercely condemning others seen to be emulating them. This is one sure way of losing credibility in the comity of nations. The ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine has provided ample lessons on various world scenarios. That might have prompted Russia and China to sign an agreement for bilateral cooperation to “counter US threats” and work for “global stability”— an initiative scheduled for the next three years. The issue of an extension is left open.

When China and Russia decided to field a joint team at the Winter Olympics, British analysts described it as an axis of evil. The comment underscored the extent of their fear of an emerging superpower strategy that threatens to adversely affect the global agenda-setting monopoly the West had since many decades. The seething anger in the venom-filled comment needs no elaboration.

Beijing supported Russia's demand that Ukraine should not be admitted into NATO, as the Kremlin amasses 100,000 troops near its neighbour, while Moscow opposed any form of independence for Taiwan, as global powers jostle over their spheres of influence. During the inaugural day of the 2022 Winter Olympics, China and Russia affirmed their pledge for a “no limits” collaboration, which reiterates their joint stance on Ukraine and Taiwan.  

Blocs in the making

While Beijing thinks that NATO should not accord membership to Ukraine that borders Russia, Beijing is reassured of Russian stand that Taiwan is very much part and parcel of the communist country. Backing each other over standoffs on Ukraine and Taiwan with a promise to collaborate more against the West. British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s infamous note to the then American President “Am with you, whatever” presents the once “great imperial power” as degradingly too eager to blindly support and follow the US without any question. 

Sharing a 4,300-km border, China and Russia last year renewed a 20-year treaty of friendly cooperation while also registering record trade in goods. Their trade hit a new mark at $190 in 2022, which was a 30 per cent rise from the previous year. The recent developments concerning Sino-Russian vis-à-vis the US-led West leave no ambiguity regarding the big power tussle that will probably aggravate with serious implications for the whole world in the foreseeable future. 

The end result will be erosion in the power grip the West had on most international issues in the post-World War II decades. While it is not certain how long will it take for the Ukraine to end, the certainty of Sino-Russian partnership is certain to deepen. The two neighbours need each other to deal with widely expected strategic moves by the West to checkmate the two.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)