Peace Postponed In West Asia

So, the United States-Iran marathon peace talks facilitated by Pakistan on April 11-12 have not produced any breakthrough, which means more meetings in the ensuing days. The American side called for Tehran’s “commitment of will” to refrain from developing nuclear weapons, while Iran objected to Washington’s “excessive demands”.

The United States’ Vice-President JD Vance led the American team for the “make or break” meet, while Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi headed the Iranian delegation in Islamabad.

Amidst a two-week pause from April 7, the US-Israel war on Iran has fetched a huge political capital for Washington’s arch-opponents, China and Russia. The manner in which Iran, which suffered 45 years of sanctions from the US-led West, held the No. 1 economic and military superpower, the United States, for six weeks has impelled the rest of the world to reassess the fast-emerging new power dynamics in the international political landscape.   

The US President Donald Trump had declared in early March that the war would end within a week, which proved to be highly premature. Some 1300 US-Israeli strikes on Iran failed to bring about the “pariah” regime's collapse. Trump’s Saturday statement, “regardless of what happens, we win”, indicated Tehran’s staying power.

Pakistan has come to the top playing the role of a formal peace talk's facilitator after what its officials say are “weeks of quiet diplomacy”. Even as US President Donald Trump earlier threatened Iran that “a whole civilisation will die tonight”, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif tweeted “with the greatest humility” that Iran and the United States, along with their allies, had agreed to an immediate ceasefire. 

Existential crisis

The geopolitical dynamics in the West Asia region have changed. Thanks to Trump’s penchant for loud claims and habit of underestimating friends and foes alike, Tehran assessed the latest conflict as its existential crisis, and hence the necessity to summon all its firepower and convey the message that it would fight to the last. 

Iranian missiles hit at least 27 military bases in the region, reaching up to Cyprus. Some 45,000 Israelis demonstrated, pressing for an end to the war. Israeli youth are talking aloud against conscription for military service.

The US-Iran talks in Islamabad on Saturday were presaged by Washington’s agreement to release billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian assets and withholding of Israeli attacks on Lebanon.  Iran demands ironclad security guarantees while the US wants the absolutist legacy of unrestricted options for the future, too—to strike when it suits it. In hindsight, Washington and Tel Aviv grossly underestimated Tehran’s power and, more than that, its determined preparations. 

Loyalists even when Trump was in a limbo for four years after his first innings at the White House ended in a mess have now turned against him over “the illegal war”. Similar voices are heard all over Europe, including Italy, France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom (UK). Spain and UK have categorically said the war is not in order and they will not be involved.

Every dog might have its day but all good things come to an end. Autocrats, at times, appear in the guise of the good Samaritans. Iran exports 90 per cent of oil to China, which accounts for 30 per cent of its trade. Russian and China have invested billions of dollars in Iran. Shanghai-Tehran railway line inaugurated in 2025, shortening the number of days by a third compared with sea-borne transport.

Just prior to the Islamabad talks, Iran warned that it would not be waylaid by Washington. Loss of credibility in allied community and humiliation in the eyes of rivals and indifferent nations stare at Trump who a week ago ranted against the “paper tiger” NATO, whose members refused to join the war. Australia and Japan, too, emulate the NATO stand. 

Today, Tehran is much more resilient than its adversaries had expected. Israel finds the going not as easy as it used to be until 1973. Although that brief war gave an impression of Israeli victory, the end result has shown that Tel Aviv and its core supporters might face a stronger foe in the future. Tehran had apparently planned and readied itself for eventualities like the February 28 strike. Diego Garcia was targeted in March by Iranian ballistic missiles whose range and strength at 4,000km are found to be double of what was previously estimated.

Desperate condition

While the combined efforts of the Arab world have never been tested against Western interests in West Asia after the 1973 war, the long-isolated Iran has emerged as the face of defiance by a relatively weaker country offering a fierce fight to the world’s mightiest military power that technologically and financially also happens to be ahead of the rest of the world. 

Tehran unleashed an energy war by imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, whose narrowest point is only 34km. It accounts for nearly a quarter of the oil supply movement.  

Pakistan has emerged as the biggest peace plan facilitator in the ceasefire search that Trump was desperate to reach. Whereas Qatar, frustrated over the intense haggling by the warring parties, quit a facilitating role, Sharif and Trump’s “favourite Field Marshal” Asim Munir were reported to be talking with Vance and Araghchi well into the wee hours.  

It was a unique scene, when a top brass in uniform became a peace broker in a conflict involving the world’s top military and economic superpower, backed by West Asia’s supposedly strongest military force on one side and, on the other, Iran that might have received some technical support and advice from China and Russia. The end effect is that Tehran made its fighting point loud and clear, even as Trump makes boasts, of which few Americans are convinced, let alone the rest of the world. 

(Kharel writes on int’l affairs & media)