Credible Weather Forecast

Checking the weather conditions has now become part of people's everyday routine to plan their activities accordingly. In today’s world, where smartphones are very common, this simple habit shows a bigger change. Information, which used to be arcane and technical, is now available right away and personal. Weather forecasts help people make decisions and assist concerned authorities in dealing with problems. As the country marked World Meteorological Day with the theme "Observing Today, Protecting Tomorrow," it is a good time to realise how far we had come and how much we needed to move forward.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology made the weather forecasts about 80 per cent accurate. Such reliable forecast is essential for a country like ours, which has many mountains and unpredictable weather patterns. However, being accurate is not enough. The nation is extremely vulnerable to disasters caused by climate change, such as floods, landslides, and irregular rainfall. The concerned authorities need a forecasting system that is easy to understand and use. Many people in cities can get weather updates on their smartphones. But people in rural areas and at high altitudes often do not have these facilities. They are the people who are most vulnerable to the risk of climate change. 

As there are no weather stations above 3,000 metres, it creates problems in taking precautionary measures. Despite the presence of over 700 weather stations nationwide, their uneven distribution fails to cover all altitude ranges. Implementing the forecast system throughout society can mitigate the hazards created by unpredictable weather conditions. It is paramount to expand weather stations in high-mountain areas. There is also a growing reliance on model-based data. This raises questions about how reliable it is in different areas. 

Nepal has different landscapes, so a forecast that is accurate for one district may not be accurate for a specific valley or village. Making forecasts more local is an important step. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology is working on providing services across six provinces, and it still lacks enough resources. The government should prioritise investments in new technologies and services. This includes maintenance, training, and public communication. Weather services are critical in several sectors, including agriculture, tourism, aviation, and hydropower. Farmers rely on rainfall predictions, airlines need visibility data and tourists want to be safe.

In this context, weather services are essential for overall safety. People should trust weather forecasts and plan their activities. Being transparent about uncertainties, educating the public and communicating in a user-friendly way can help build trust. All forecasting is a science of probabilities, not certainties. Climate change is getting worse, and extreme weather events are happening more often. In recent years, the country witnessed huge loss of lives and infrastructure due to heavy downpours, floods and landslides. Property worth billions of rupees has been destroyed. This necessitates that the people are aware of weather patterns in diverse geographies. Therefore, Nepal must invest not just in better forecasts but also in a system that reaches every citizen in every terrain, with clarity and reliability, so that weather information becomes a daily convenience and a cornerstone of national resilience.