France Struggles For Stable Govt

President Emmanuel Macron has reappointed Sebastien Lecornu as prime minister four days after the latter resigned to be registered as the country’s shortest-stinting head of government. Lecornu was in office for 27 days and the cabinet members he had recommended the previous day were yet to be formally sworn in. Markets in France fell steeply and the political crisis deepened when news poured in on October 6 that Lecornu had resigned after lawmakers rejected his budget proposal.  Four governments in less than a year, and yet no government has been able to push through the budget. 

A bad fiscal position does not augur well for any country. For developing countries, continuous downturns risk public wrath with uncertain consequences. For the rich and superrich, public disenchantment and loss of international influence are the consequences. Doubts sow seeds of uncertainty. It is difficult for any new government to shore up its credibility without efficient fixes, which again is an extremely tall order. Being liberal to the extent of ignoring the ground reality might not serve as an appropriate answer to militancy. 

Once the cat is out of the bag, a crisis of credibility hits even the big and mighty, whereas developing nations face frequent political turmoil and even a change of regime, often not necessarily with the desired outcome. In the process, the image of big power invincibility wears off, and encourages lesser nations to display defiance against their long-time tormentors. Cracks in traditional alliances develop.

Political paralysis

After Macron called for a surprise National Assembly election in June 2024, which produced a hung parliament without any single party winning a clear majority, cobbling together a government became a harrowing task. Public frustrations have found space in frequent street protests in which large numbers of people turn out. There is no support system to make French legislators fall in line, thanks to the absence of the whip mechanism that many Westminster-style systems have.  Obtaining and maintaining the required majority backing in parliament is a highly onerous undertaking. The political divisions are deep, and the demands that potential coalition constituents put forth entail a lot of haggling.

Current media speculations include: “Is France heading toward the appointment of a technical government, the nomination of yet another prime minister, or even a snap election? Alternatively, could the country face a prolonged political vacuum similar to Belgium’s 18-month government hiatus?” A powerful but democratic executive will not deny an elected parliament asserting its rights and responsibilities. French thinker Montesquieu would be left chagrined if his theory of separation of powers, espoused in the 18th century, were distorted in interpretation. All three key branches of government — the executive, the legislative and the judiciary — are bound to act independently but heed the letter and spirit of the prevailing law of their homeland. 

The recent series of political crises can be traced back to Macron’s hasty call for a snap poll, inaugurating a painful period of chaos. Much time was sapped by behind-the-scenes bargaining, only to end up with a new government, too, suffering a fall. Passing the annual budget has become an excruciating task. Issues related to immigration, fiscal policy, job creation, law and environment are some of the causes of disagreement. A hung parliament puts the country in dire straits crowned by political instability. 

Lecornu’s predecessor government, headed by Francois Bayrou, was brought down in nine months. A clearly anguished Bayrou lamented before the lawmakers: “You have the power to bring down the government, but you do not have the power to erase reality.” The latest political paralysis is not something new to the French post-World War II national scene. The country recorded as many as 26 governments in the 12 years from 1946 to 1958 under the Fourth Republic. One of the governments fell in two days. Fears are that the Fifth Republic, too, might experience a repeat of the same.

Italy has had more than 69 governments since 1946. But the past two years in France have eclipsed Italy’s relatively better recent records. In the French National Assembly, socialists, communists and the Green Party together hold the majority of elected deputies now. Macron’s party is the third largest grouping. While Macron makes desperate moves to avoid another snap poll, the consequent chaotic conditions point out the next stage of political uncertainty. In fact, some of his own party members are beginning to want him to resign and go for a fresh presidential election.

Exacting exercise

What then is the solution under the prevailing circumstances? The answer is in the prescription that France and the others in the European Union give to their former colonies and developing countries, which need not be elaborated on here this time. Losing mass ownership of an ideological party hastens the process of divisions in society to different directions, orientations and demands. This way, society drifts to chaos. In such a situation, a parliamentary majority does not in itself guarantee good governance.

In the United Kingdom’s 2024 general election, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won 63 per cent of the seats in the 650-member House of Representatives on the strength of just a third of the total votes cast. Several studies indicate that only one in ten Britons now strongly supports either Labour or the Conservative Party. Surveys conducted by three prominent agencies in September-October this season gave Starmer approval ratings between 23 to 30 per cent, notwithstanding the overwhelming majority. 

With a hung National Assembly dominated by fractious parties squabbling over opposing issues, Macron’s last-ditch effort at putting off an early election before he retires in June 2027 is an exacting exercise that exhausts his presidency. Now that he has accepted reappointment, Lecornu will try to reassure other parties that he and his key cabinet members will not be presidential candidates in the next presidential election. He will also step away from introducing policies that the majority of lawmakers do not agree with. The result: a lame duck government until the next general election.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)