Hard Truths Grip Germany

As widely expected, no German political party obtained the majority of seats in Wednesday’s election, more or less in line with what opinion polls had been indicating one after another. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU)-Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance polled 28.6 per cent of votes, while the outgoing Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) trailed behind with only 16 per cent of votes, that is, nine per cent less than in the previous election. Not surprising but highly significant was the relatively new Alternative for Germany (AfD) that polled nearly 21 per cent of votes, almost twice its previous record in 2021. 

Even with improbable chances for sharing power, AfD leader Alice Weidel is in an upbeat mood, propped up by the upsurge in her party’s enhanced seat strength. Her organisation is banking on the uphill task the new coalition will face in addressing multifarious issues in key areas. While a new government gets formally installed only after several weeks, if not months, Germany might be in for recession in the third consecutive year. Its chief concern is the economy. The presumptive new chancellor, CDU’s Friedrich Merz, is faced with the task of rectifying the exacting course. 

In reference to ongoing haggling over power-sharing with smaller parties, CDU’s Merz, 69, said: “If we spend weeks, possibly months… then the period in which this country is without a majority capable of governing will be too long for me.” 

Coalition culture

Scholz led a three-party coalition, with the ride proving to be rib-rattling while the public was deeply dismayed over the economy. Amidst differences over taxing and social welfare programmes, he sacked Finance Minister Christian Linder, whose Free Democratic Party consequently withdrew support to the coalition cabinet and the snap poll was called. The environmentalist Greens, a partner in the Scholz cabinet, performed poorly this time compared to its previous strength.

Post-World War II Germany has tried it all. A single-party government has become increasingly difficult. Last week’s election is headed for weeks of negotiations before a new government is cobbled together. From a simple coalition team to the grand coalition to a complicated coalition cabinet, Europe’s largest economy has registered a variety of combinations. 

SPD’s slide has been the most consistent for nearly three decades, not being able to become a majority party. CDU has a better record, but it, too, has recorded regular reverses. Its leader, Angela Merkel, led the government for the fourth consecutive time in 2019, with the regional party, CSU, the government’s constant constituent. The steeply conservative CSU, which focuses on Catholic teaching, will continue its fixture this spring, too. Now in the throes of a downward economic ride, Germany is bombarded with suggestions for emulating the United Kingdom and quitting the 27-member European Union. The idea of ditching the EU is inspired by a desire to close the borders. 

Germany’s trademark, the Volks Wagen Company, is preparing for closing down ten factories, laying off ten per cent of its employees and slashing salaries by ten per cent. That is how hard the once invincible company’s ongoing conditions are. Added expenses are to be met in the wake of talks on the European defence system after the United States President Donald Trump landed a back kick by bluntly asking Europe to contribute more to its security instead of expecting Washington to contribute the lion’s share forever. 

Germany remains the largest donor to war-ravaged Ukraine, second only to the US. It has supplied money and weapons to Europe’s poorest and also most corrupt country. Yet it is Germany that is bearing the brunt of the sanctions on Russia. The direct oil pipeline from Russia was bombed, which stopped supply to Germany. This has meant an additional $1.5 trillion on oil import bills from other sources in the past two and a half years. 

Those developments have drained Germany’s resources as well as patience. Suggestions include exiting from the EU. Bilateral deals between the UK and Germany could bear productive fruits for mutual benefits, even if the continent’s biggest economy’s quitting act could collapse the EU.  Key issues include mass immigration, a sluggish economy, security concerns and effective use of aid to Ukraine in its struggle against Russia. Former Chancellor Angela Merkel regretted her government’s liberal immigration policy. 

At the same time, being patriotic and asserting national interests no longer carry the derogatory “rightist tag”. AfD stands for conscription in the military, improving ties with Moscow and deportation of illegal immigrants. Differences within the EU are surfacing regularly. Hungary has taken a stance different from most other European countries. It wants sanctions on Russia to end. Many press for an independent defence policy for the continent rather than being too reliant on the US. 

Elon Musk endorsed AfD when the German president dissolved parliament in January, as the country’s “last spark of hope”, which has triggered diverse and hectic discussions on the development. 

Merz’s message

Merz, keen “to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible”, is seen as hinting of a “seismic shift” in foreign policy pursuits. He wants to steer Europe away from the imposition of the American agenda to ensure that European values and Europe as a whole are great again. At the recent Munich Security Conference, American Vice President JD Vance spoke of the threat Europe faces from within. He also met with AfD leader, Alice Weidel, underscoring an end to the long-standing taboo on talking to the far-right leader. 

Berlin carries the burden of World War II guilt and has always toed the mainstream West’s agendas with virtually little argument. The world’s richest billionaire, Elon Musk, who serves as Trump’s senior advisor, has urged Germany to get over the “past guilt”. Germany hosts more than 55,000 American troops spread over 42 military bases. NATO should have been disbanded in 1991 after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. The Russians pulled out of East Germany but not NATO.

Not all is lost. In the past, Germany showed the resilience and breathtaking efficiency to regain lost ground at great speed. Today, on the world political stage, too, Berlin can make its presence felt as a power to reckon with. 

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)