Heavyweights Switch Allegiance

With less than a year left for its 15th general convention, Nepali Congress (NC) is witnessing intense internal polarisation, making its battle for new leadership tough, complex and nail-biting. As president Sher Bahadur Deuba has kept mum about his successor, the multiple factional leaders within the establishment are competing with each other to secure his favour. For Deuba, it is like cracking a hard nut to balance many an ambitious stalwart of his camp. On the other hand, Dr Shekhar Koirala, who lost to Deuba in the 14th convention, has already thrown his hat in the ring, projecting him as the strong contender of the presidential post. He is reaching out to the party’s grassroots workers, heating up the tempo of internal election.

Deuba has to pass the mantle to new party president as its statute does not allow him to hold the top post for three terms but he is intent on maintaining his dominance in the party. He wants that the new leader will be loyal to him. But those who fail to win his backing are likely to shift their allegiance to the rival groups in search of better political fortune. They think Deuba will no longer hold the power magnet and new equation is likely to emerge to decide the party’s leadership and future.

Strategy

Nonetheless, Deuba, known for his reticent nature, has seemingly resorted to a strategy to continue his sway over the party even after the 15th convention. For this, he wants to conduct party convention after the general election due to be held in 2084 B.S. (2027). One clear advantage of pushing back the convention date is that Deuba will distribute the tickets to the party candidates in a way he can tip the outcomes of convention to his benefit. However, the anti-establishment faction is against the idea of holding the convention after the polls. Even general secretary Gagan Thapa, who is supposed to have allied with president Deuba at the moment, has said that the convention will be held in Nepali month of Mangsir in 2082 B.S. at all cost.

Former general secretary Dr. Shashank Koirala, who is set to fight for the president, has suggested that it will be appropriate to hold party’s convention after the general polls. If the party goes to the polls immediately after the convention, the acrimonious feelings and bickering arising from the internal contest will impact the polls, he argues. Dr Shashanka's remarks are seen as a sort of trial balloon on part of the establishment to gauge the views of the anti-Deuba faction.  He has publicly said that Deuba will back his bid to contest in the party's highest position. He was elected to the post of general secretary in the 13th convention and supported Deuba in the 14th convention to elect the latter as president so he is confident that Deuba will throw his support behind him in the upcoming national jamboree.

However, it is believed that many of NC leaders hardly buy the idea of Dr Shashanka with regard to deferral of the party convention date. The NC held its 14th convention in Nepali month of Mangsir 2078 B.S. The party law requires it organising convention in every four years. The president can extend his tenure by one year as per the statute, citing the special circumstances. Some analysts have warned that if the convention date is stretched beyond 2084 B.S., the party risks the termination of its registration by the Election Commission Office.

Meanwhile, Deuba’s loyalists are busy cajoling him ahead of the convention. Vice president Purna Bahadur Khadka is the most probable candidate in mustering Deuba’s support to contest the post of president. Khadka has remained steadfast in supporting Deuba from the beginning. He has been one of a few strategists, whom Deuba employed especially when there is urgency in forging new alliance with other parties. But Deuba was unhappy with Khadka following the collapse of the NC-CPN-Maoist Centre alliance. Khadka failed to stop Maoist Centre chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda from dramatically teaming up with CPN-UML chair KP Sharma Oli.

Khadka had won appreciation from almost all party’s leaders when he successfully negotiated to bring back the NC to the centre of power by breaking the Maoist Centre’s partnership with the UML in the aftermath of the general election in 2022. Had the NC-Maoist Centre coalition continued to exist to date, Khadka would have been in better position to manoeuvre in getting elected to the highest party post. Former home minister Bal Krishna Khand was also seen a potential candidate for the president from the Deuba’s faction but his political career suffered a big blow after he was implicated in the notorious Bhutanese refugee scam.  It is speculated that his ties with Deuba have gone sour. Khand has reportedly accused his president of not doing enough to protect him from being indicted in the very scandal. 

Switching allegiances 

Khand, who was released from the judicial custody on bail, has now shifted to Dr Shekhar Korala's camp. Not only him, general secretary Bishwo Prakash Sharma and joint general secretaries - Bhismraj Angdambe and Mahendra Yadav - have reportedly shown their allegiance to the Koirala camp. Dr Koirala is active to lure other heavyweights such as joint general secretaries – Kishore Singh Rathore and Mahalaxmi Upadhyay 'Dina' – into his group. These leaders are switching their loyalty as Deuba has kept his plan under wraps.

Observers claim Deuba wants to establish his spouse and Foreign Minister Dr Arzu Deuba Rana in the higher echelon of party. At a recent training programme organised for the party district presidents in Pokhara, Deuba hinted that he wanted to create a political space for Arzu. And he will put his weight behind that presidential candidate who would agree on his scheme. Still, there is suspense and curiosity as to who will finally get Deuba's blessing to stand for the post of party's president.

(The author is Deputy Executive Editor of this daily.)