The Arab Spring That Once Was

Tunis, December 17, 2010: Mohamed Bouazizi, a humble retailer in the Tunisian capital, took the  drastic step of self-immolation in reaction to his long innings of daily grind, amid aggravated harassment by government officials. He could take no more, and hence the extreme step that highlighted how life was to an average man in the street. 

The shocking incident became a rallying point for hundreds of thousands of people in the Mediterranean nation to come out in the streets, protesting against corruption and calling for sweeping political and economic reforms. 

It triggered chain reactions, particularly in the Arab world from North Africa to West Asia. Syria, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain were affected. The ripple effects were also seen on different scales in Morocco, Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, Sudan, Djibouti, Mauritania and Palestine.

Some of these protest movements occurred in wealthy nations hit by poverty, corruption and bad governance. Inequality was one of the prime causes of public wrath, as manifested in street demonstrations, mass movements, uprisings, armed actions, defections, internet war, media activism, closures of business establishments and outright non-cooperation.

As a result, a number of long-time rulers, listed as corrupt, incompetent and authoritarian, were hounded out of power. Others managed to quell the protests and survive but not without becoming aware of the simmering dissatisfaction beneath the seemingly quiet surface. It was clear that once the scale of harassment and suppression welled up to a bursting point, the outcome could be uncontrollably unpredictable.   

Consequences

Tunisia’s long-ruling President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, in power since 1987, was compelled to step down and live in exile. In Libya, Muammar Gaddafi was shot dead amid loud chants of victory. President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt resigned when street demonstrators became increasingly threatening. Reporters without Borders, in its 2022 report on annual Press Freedom index, places Egypt 168th in a list of 180 nations.

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who first came to power in a military coup staged in 2013, dissolved the country’s unicameral legislature. The existing Constitution allows him to appoint five per cent of the total number of legislators. Yemen’s first President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in power since 1990, too, had to step down in 2012. Saleh was a close ally to Iraq’s Saddam Hussein before the US-led foreign military intervention in 2003 that led to the Iraqi leader’s eventual hanging. After a brief period of positive direction, Tunisia returned to the old style of governance. President suspended parliament in 2021 and introduced the rule of decree.

In Bahrain, Saudi Arabia intervened in support of the ruling regime. Yemen got embroiled in an eight-year old armed conflict that has caused heavy suffering on the people. Fighting since 2014 resulted in deaths of men, women and children apart from triggering an economic crisis for an average Yemeni. While Saudi Arabia supported the Sunni government with men and material, Iran provided similar aid to Houthi Shi’ites.

Libya experienced eight harrowing years of civil war that ended after a government of National Unity was installed in 2021. The US military intervention aided anti-Gaddafi rebels with air strikes and material support. That the US and its European allies do not repeat the same in Ukraine indicates their intention of not taking on a major world power, unless assessed absolutely essential.

Estimates are that between 61,000 lives and 140,000 people perished in the course of the revolutions that the West named as Arab Spring. Up to six million people were displaced. Many believe that external factors played a vital role in providing fodder to the movements. And conditions soon returned to what they were during the pre-Arab Spring days.

However, the series of events did inflict a big jolt on authoritarian regimes across the world. It also brought into sharp focus the fact that some of the countries claiming to be advanced democracies were cosying up with dictators and authoritarian regimes in the name of “security” interests. Only when they have no major economic or other strategic interests do the “advanced democracies” raise issues pertaining to freedom, human rights and social justice. 

The post-World War II decades are witness to glaring hypocrisy in the rhetoric and actual practice concerning democracy, sovereign rights of independent nations and fair deal. Selective treatment is meted out to regimes considered to be allies — even if ruled by dictators — while others are termed not reliable or foes. Why did the Arab Spring not prove sustainable? So quickly did the changes or movements fizzle out that people wonder whether it was a short-lived dream come true to some countries and a nightmare to most others from the very beginning, depending upon on which side of the conflict they were in. 

Uncertainty

The general pattern of political changes, amidst encouraging chants from foreign media and well-funded agencies, was that a big vacuum got created in the absence of well thought out plans and policies in steering the course of the revolutions and appropriate follow-up initiatives. 

Economic equality is the root cause of many anomalies and conflicts in societies, whether in rich countries or in developing states. At a time when the three largest powers — Russia, China and the United States — are engaged in overt confrontations and proxy wars, which does not bode well for the world at large, one-party communist China flaunts its success story concerning its record of massive poverty elevation.

Over the past four decades, people’s movements in different countries and continents have highlighted that bad governance cannot go on forever.  Presently, all might seem quiet but it could presage strong storms any time, as people revive their energy and again unleash their anger against their insensitive rulers. 

Once the seething sections of society say “enough is enough” and gets in action, those responsible for misrule will face a wrath that could turn any which way. Post- revolution period often creates confusion and chaos at its early stage before things get settled. At times, such situations prove a prescription to be worse than the disease itself.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)