British PM On Labour Notice

Member of the House of Commons, Jonathan Brash fired the first shot earlier this month to press for Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down or push him out. As the hours passed, the pace against the occupant at London’s 10 Downing Street was fuelled by more critics. Catherine West, a backbencher, went even further, saying that if Starmer did not quit, she herself would fight for party leadership. Within 48 hours after her statement, a momentum had gathered to pose a serious situation for the man who led his party to a big win in the general elections held in July 2024.  

The cause for the rift in the running party was the drubbing it suffered in this month’s council elections in England, Wales and Scotland. Labour lost more than 1,500 seats in England alone, and found itself out of power in Wales, where its century-old dominance ended, and won only 17 seats in the 129-member Scottish Parliament. The turmoil threatens to collapse the Starmer government.  

As compared to the 2019 elections, Labour’s total number of seats this time was almost double and the Conservative Party’s collection was more than half of their 2019 record. And this happened less than two years after Starmer led the party to an impressive majority. 

Troubled waters

As pressure welled up, Starmer found himself in a serious leadership crisis. As an indication, Andy Burnham is soon to contest for a seat vacated by a fellow Labour member to pave the way for his entry into the Commons, enabling him to take a shot at the prime ministerial chair. And that happened only 22 months after Starmer led the Labour Party to a landslide majority, winning 412 seats in the 650-member House of Commons. As of now, some want him to set a timetable to step down sometime this year. Others want to ditch him right away as he has “lost authority”.

Undoubtedly, Starner is digging his heels in to salvage his authority in the Labour. While the opposition in the Commons has been hammering on him a battery of issues that he finds hard to defend, the latest council poll outcome blew the sails out of the prime minister’s claim of good governance. 

His own party members are pressing for his resignation or an outright move to replace him with someone who could steer the organisation to safer and better grounds. Things deteriorate to the extent of creating an almost untenable situation for the Starmer leadership. The prime minister admits that these are tough times. At the same time, he maintains that he is not going to run away from “responsibility” under such critical conditions for his party and the country. 

Starmer admitted the “tough loss” which he refused to "sugarcoat", but insisted “I’m not going to walk away from challenges and plunge the country into chaos”. The pattern was the same in England, Wales and Scotland, with the anti-immigration Reform UK, whose skipper Nigel Farage is upbeat about. The Green Party, too, gained ground at Labour’s expense. Berated as the “walking Liberals”, the Liberals are a shadow of what they were in the previous decade. Politically, they are lost in a limbo, in search of a distinct identity.

Council polls are considered to be a public opinion barometer for the next general election, too. Voters are in an angry mood. Although there are three more years to go, the question is whether Starmer’s leadership can address his party’s declining fortunes and dipping public approval rating. Starmer might not say in as many words, but his actions and expressions betray the deepening difficulty he encounters. Public opinion polls show increased support for Reform UK, a right-wing populist party that takes a hard line against immigration policy. 

Home Department Secretary Shabana Mahmood was among those calling for Starmer to set out a timetable to quit the job at 10 Downing Street. Six ministerial aides and several ministers exited after they called the prime minister to schedule his departure this year. Even as only 23 per cent of the British public have a favourable opinion of his performance, the growing revolt within the Labour Party has registered about 80 MPs demanding his resignation. 

Is Britain in decline? Many noted British analysts think it is so. In resentment of foreigners owning massive properties in London, complaints mount against immigrants seen as “not integrating” in British society.

Rocky boat

By dragging his foot, Starmer could damage the Tories’ public approval rating, much to the benefit of the UK Reform, which rears its hope of making it to No. 10 Downing Street in the next general election. He should learn to listen to the public pulse. A dignified exit might stem the falling trend in the opinion polls. In any case, the existing situation demands not only a change in leadership but measures that address the issue of immigrants, jobs, and the economy. The choice for Starmer seems to be to either seek a dignified departure or invite a bitter showdown that could hurt his credibility and Labour’s popularity. 

Margaret Thatcher led the Conservative Party to victory in the 1979 general election. Britain’s first woman prime minister, she repeated the feat four years later and again, for the third time, in 1987. Her success in leading the party in three consecutive elections was a rarity, the last of which was registered in 1826.  Labour leader Tony Blair matched the feat, winning in 1997, 2001, and 2005. Under the prevailing circumstances, Starmer’s desire to prolong his stay at No. 10 might be nothing more than a gross compromise in the transparent garb of “adjustments”, which is neither here nor there. It would be no surprise if he eventually bows out of office anytime this year.

(Kharel writes on int'l affairs & media.)