Prepare For Disasters  

Nature is inherently unpredictable as the world is tackling climate change. Even in an age of Artificial Intelligence, the experts scratch their heads for making precise predictions. They face a huge challenge in forecasting accurate timing, intensity and geographical distribution of weather events such as rainfall, floods, landslides, heatwaves and cyclones. As they deviate from the historical pattern, the task of disaster management becomes critical for the authorities. It is true that sophisticated technology such as ultra-fast supercomputers, AI-driven models and localised statistics has enabled us to gain certain precision. But the capriciousness of nature has forced the scientists to rely less on historical data and more on advanced climate modelling. Nepal is yet to be equipped with modern technology to handle the weather events occurring in the diverse climate zones. The country's complex and extreme topography and Himalayan microclimates have hindered accurate forecasting.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) has projected below-normal monsoon rainfall and hotter temperatures across most parts of the country in the coming four months. Its weather forecast has been published in its National Outlook for Monsoon Season-2026. El Niño conditions that are going to develop in the Pacific Ocean have been cited as a factor for below-average rainfall. But the DHM officials have not ruled out the possibility of intense localised downpours and extreme weather events that could cause damage to lives and property. The DHM's forecast aligns with that of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which defines a rapidly developing El Niño event as the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The El Niño is said to weaken the monsoon, thereby neutralising the intensity of rainfall.

The experts have conveyed dual messages that sound a bit contradictory. Despite the lower rainfall, extreme weather events can take place due to the moisture-laden air from the Bay of Bengal. Last year too, the monsoon rainfall was below normal but the country witnessed intense rainfall towards the end of the season. This means there is no room for complacency. Initiatives must be taken to implement robust disaster preparedness and response plans. The concerned agencies must deploy rescue teams and set up shelters in high-risk places prone to localised extreme rainfall. A week ago, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) prepared this year’s National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Action Plan.  It is estimated that around 226,661 people from 51,868 households across the country are projected to be affected by monsoon-related disasters this year, according to a news report of this daily. This projection is equivalent to around 10 per cent of the worst-case scenario.

The NDRRMA has strengthened its Monsoon Command Post to enhance real-time monitoring, coordination and emergency response. The post coordinates disaster information, mobilises rescue teams and passes alerts to the public through SMS, ringtones, public announcements and other means. However, there is a need for generating awareness of weather events among the people, especially vulnerable ones. The people living on the riverbanks need to be relocated for their safety. However, our agencies are not adequately prepared to effectively handle the extreme monsoon disasters. DHM and NDRRMA are still unable to make detailed scientific risk assessments, which are necessary to locate exact areas, roads or settlements vulnerable to floods and landslides. The local bodies responsible for disaster preparedness need to be equipped with trained human resources and equipment. The government should also invest in climate research and weather technology for precise prediction.