Allegation No Cause For Assault

Ironically, for someone publicly craving the Nobel Peace Prize, the United States’ President Donald Trump gave the go-ahead to an official raiding party that successfully executed an operation to kidnap Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores on Saturday. The Maduro couple was snatched and whisked away to New York, apparently with the aid of some inside help. 

The unilateral strike is somewhat reminiscent of the US-led invasion of oil-rich Iraq in 2003 on the pretext that its President Saddam Hussein possessed banned weapons of mass destruction that never existed, and key invading countries knew of the fact. In the process, at least half a million Iraqis were killed. The military intervention was enacted without any endorsement of the United Nations. Now comes the Maduro incident in Venezuela, which accounts for the single-largest oil reserves beneath its sands. Washington accuses the Maduro government of drug trafficking. 

The needle of suspicion is, however, on the world’s largest oil reserves that the country possesses. American intelligence units are believed to have been tipped off by close associates and relatives of Al-Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi.  By the time the shock of the Saturday adventure settles with all its ramifications in the minds of political players and analysts, the chilling effects will have gone deep across the world. 

Acid test

The United Nations faces an intense test of addressing the issue triggered by one of its Security Council’s powerful veto members. At the time the UN was established in 1945, critics expressed concern over the veto rights accorded the “Big Five”— China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. If small states are involved in conflicts, the big powers could combine to play the peace brokers, but if the latter clashed with one another, may the Divine bless all. 

Commentators worried that the world body risked being rendered ineffective if any privileged member of the exclusive club of five engaged in aggression or some other untoward adventure. Their concerns were not misplaced. They are as relevant today as they were at the time of the UN launch. But the times have changed. The UN will have to reshape to avoid being reduced to a dismal organisation in contrast to the high expectations generated eight decades ago. 

Kautilya in the 3rd century BCE and Niccolo Machiavelli, 18 centuries later, spoke of the policy of might is right. Both Kautilya and Machiavelli went deep into this aspect of statecraft. Many academics love bashing Kautilya of the Himwatkhand region in South Asia and the Italian Machiavelli for their ideas, elaborately focused on various aspects of statecraft and survival strategies. Champions of modern democracy originating in Europe loftily rejected the practice of such theories, which some loved bashing as out-and-out conspiratorial. Rational and moral stands are ideals rarely put into practice in international politics. The shades of grey might vary case by case, but they fill the kitty of especially big powers. 

The US has the longest-running cold war with communist Cuba, about 100 km off America’s southern state of Florida. It goes back to the beginning of 1959 when Fidel Castro’s communist party rule began, and has stood as an eyesore to the superpower that the US is, claiming to be the hub of the capitalist world. Trump now warns Cuba could be the next target. He has issued notices to Mexico and Colombia, both Latin American states. A week ago, Trump vowed to intervene if Tehran used bullets to quell protesting crowds in the streets.  

Rational, moral stands are ideal but rarely put into practice in international politics. When a push turns into a shove too far, too deep, and too long, no sovereign nation can afford to take things lying down anymore.

A superpower aristocracy, aggravated by military autocracy, tends to bully and even attack vulnerable targets that do not respond positively to its “vital interests."  Aid politics and the acquisition of rights to natural resources by bribing leaders of many developing countries have become a part of the rich and powerful countries. Chinese cooperation is less conditional and is virtually without political strings attached. This attracts most nations, except those under Western duress or that hold outright anti-Chinese stands. 

Ideals defiled

The prevailing intellectual landscape in the Western world is underlined by the manner in which the mightiest nation’s executive head talks about annexing Denmark’s vastly resource-rich self-governing territory of Greenland. And the great intellectual community hardly issues any note of caution, let alone reprimand. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen was “deeply upset” when Trump appointed Jeff Landry, the Governor of Louisiana, as special envoy to Greenland, and publicly wished to have the island as part of the US. 

Strategic interests cannot be entertained at the expense of another sovereign nation’s core interests. Learning to respect where you want other sovereign nations is an essential element for international harmony. But treatment on equal footing is a slogan respected more in its breach than honoured in practice. Few Americans reject Trump’s equating of US interests with “the safety, security, and survival of our allies. The European Union can back Washington to the hilt, hem and haw, or issue a displeasure.  Taking a firm stand should come in good stead for global credibility and long-term reliability. 

Economic competition is the crux of the recent acceleration in international tensions. Although Trump claims Venezuela is now under his administration, Russia and China are unlikely to stay and stare idly. They will be proactive in aiding and assisting close allies and with whom they share strategic interests vis-à-vis the US. And Iran will be determined to fortify its position and prepare firmly for any eventuality. Sometimes, anything goes, but not always. Beijing and Moscow will spread and deepen their strategic buildups, redoubling efforts at consolidating their positions, including those of their close partners. If it is Venezuela today, some others could be the next. The Caracas story might serve as a precedent for others to unilaterally force their way to aggrandisement.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)