Geopolitical Stability Fosters Prosperity

Geopolitics is a continuously evolving process. It is not static to be confined to a mere geography or a defined political spectrum, but rather a dynamic interplay that is interlinked with the economy, natural resources, demographics, strategic security, diplomacy, and leadership traits. With the changes in time and situation, global geopolitics too shifted its goalposts from one corner to another. World War I and World War II shifted the geopolitical power from Europe to the USA and the Soviet Union. The bipolar world came to an end with the disintegration of the USSR in 1991. 

The Russia-Ukraine war, the rise of the Global South, and the expanding roles of China and India in regional and global affairs have posed a renewed challenge to the hegemony of the unipolar world. As a result, geopolitical power balance elsewhere in the world gets fiddled with, and Nepal remains no exception to it. 

Containment

China and India are moving ahead to become global superpowers individually in pursuit of a multipolar world. It is presumed that without regional ascendancy, no global supremacy can be attained; therefore, containment in and around the region is what they initially believed could be the stepping stone to take further advancement onto the world stage. On the contrary, containing each other seems to be counterproductive for both of them, given their speedy growth and development; instead, they would prefer to move forward to narrow down the trade deficit, settle the border dispute, and cool down geopolitical rivalry. 

Undoubtedly, the Sino-Indian rivalry means unstable Nepal, as many players try to misuse our terrain to weaken both our neighbours. An over-reliance on distant allies is like losing the moon while counting the stars.  Hence, from our position, Nepal should always expect both our neighbours to act as a cohesive power to spread the message of the East: peace and harmony to the world. The mighty Himalayas, the historic and religious/cultural sites, glacier-fed rivers, arable plains and the lush forest that covers 46 per cent of our total land are our key strategic assets. 

Nepal should always be aware of growing cross-continental transactional politics. A 'give-and-take relationship in the ongoing tariff war, and the terms and conditions put forward to Ukraine on their rare earth and critical minerals for the stoppage of the war at the current contact line are some burning examples that have kept the agreements and regulations of international trade rules and ideological values at bay. Our geographical location, which is directly linked to the water tower of Asia, makes us geopolitically more sensitive.  A ' whole-of-government' approach, and by extension a ' whole-of-nation' approach, is the only way to gain the economic independence that leads to self-reliance. The nation's strength and unity are connected to its economy. 

Geopolitical dynamics is a multiplex chapter to understand.  The Russia-Ukraine war could be the modern-day precedent. There was widespread belief that Kyiv would fall in a matter of days, but it is still standing anyhow. It is easy to start a war, but the ending of it is always troublesome and expensive. In Gaza, two years of protracted war have piled up 60 million tons of debris, giving the entire city an image of a war relic with losses of many precious lives. Removal of rubble is the first task for any reconstruction work, and that's not a cakewalk that can be done overnight; it may take a decade or more. 

In monetary value, a catastrophic infrastructure loss/damage of around US$70 billion has been estimated.  A message out of Gaza and Ukraine is that geopolitical power play is equally menacing, if misplayed, irrespective of the region or continent, because it often leaves the sufferer in the lurch as physically destroyed, socially fractured, and economically collapsed.  

In addition to cultural and historic ties and the traditional sphere of influence, a geographical proximity supplemented by abundant fresh river waters flowing from the Himalayas and their capitalisation could be India's primary interest in Nepal. Besides, trade expansion within and beyond via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), prohibition of anti-Chinese activities in Nepali territory, and adherence to the One-China policy are what China wants from Nepal. The USA places Nepal as an integral element of the Indo-Pacific Strategy via the MCC grant to increase its strong presence between two burgeoning economic and defence hubs. 

The Nepali government, diplomatic missions abroad, and our intelligentsia circle should have a clear roadmap for handling and understanding a new grammar of great power relations. On the same note, our agencies should always up their antenna on common global issues and their potential repercussion on us, such as climate action, global supply chain, data (critical minerals) pooling and processing, arms control, and global finance.

 Landlocked-oriented economy

The United Nations (UN), too, seems to be getting locked in great power rivalries, and its effectiveness is diminishing. Thus, Nepal should be more focused on developing a 'landlocked- oriented economy', such as gaining independence on renewable energy, agriculture, medicine, etc. A vibrant government to retain and mobilise the youth in productive sectors is an  urgent call. 

Skill-based education system, tourism, natural disaster resilience infrastructure, high-value agro produce and their export, and production of industrial goods with exploitation of green energy and their inland export to the neighbours and beyond could impart us economic prosperity, culminating in national unity, and most importantly, helps us attain geopolitical stability.

(The author is former senior engineer at the Nepali Army.)