West Asian Powers Redefined

After 12 days of war, Iran and Israel last Monday agreed to a truce that carries with it a massive message for West Asia in particular and the rest of the world in general: a regional power is born.  Iran’s three major nuke sites, including the formidable Fordow, were hit by US bombers on June 21. The bombs were the largest non-nuclear bombs the US ever deployed. A furious Tehran fired advanced ballistic missiles that some experts say are possessed by three other countries—the US, Russia and China. Tehran accused Washington of violating the international law and treaty of nuclear weapons treaty. 

Tehran then attacked the largest US bases in Qatar, declaring that “the era of American impunity is over”. Had it not been for Tehran’s warnings, the scale of damage to the bases would have been as limited on scale as it turned out to be. The move was apparently to exhibit its prowess and to convey a warning that it will not take diktats or attacks lying down, that is, when its core national and security interests are at stake. But then, Washington had also given Tehran an early warning prior to launching the strikes on the latter’s key N-sites, which enabled to reduce the latter’s actual damage.

Deadly phase

The war entered a new and deadly phase. Israel had not previously experienced the scale of destruction in the 12-day conflict. Tehran warned of “dire consequences” to the US, which came a day after Trump threatened regime change in Iran, on June 23. Pro-Iran militias were involved in the attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Moscow and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin the very next day after the American bombardment. Putin promised help. Tehran shut the Gulf of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the global oil supply passes. It also accounts for a major waterway for other trade. Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping were becoming engaged in their support of Iran. 

NATO member Turkey’s President Erdogan condemned the US attacks on Iran’s key nuclear installations. He rejected such attacks from whichever source, and said the 57-member Organisation of Islamic Cooperation would strive to prevent greater disaster. The Turkish leader was, however, subjected to criticisms that he did not walk his talk. Tel Aviv has called for expelling Turkey from NATO, which was formed after World War II to deal with the Cold War. However, the defence alliance continues even after 35 years since the 1991 dissolution of the world’s first communist state, the Soviet Union. 

Late on January 23, Trump posted a status on social media claiming that Israel and Iran had agreed to “a total ceasefire” that “will last forever”, and invoked divine blessings for Israel, Iran, the Middle East, and the world. But Iran quickly termed it not true. After Trump’s hasty post announcing a ceasefire, Iran fired six waves of missiles at Israel. Six ballistic missile salvoes, triggered in the last minutes before the ceasefire became effective officially on June 24, did heavy damage to Israel and created a big dent in the target’s big supporters in the West. At least four cities were hit.  In an unsparing mood, Tehran’s strategy was to make the best of the remaining few hours before the ceasefire was agreed to start working.

Trump had rushed to project himself as an effective negotiator, but without understanding the nuances involved and Tehran’s resolve to draw the maximum from the new development. His swagger embarrassed his red-faced administration officials. What came out later was that Washington nudged Qatar to take the proposal for a ceasefire to Iran, and Trump, on the belief that Tehran could not resist the offer, went global with his social media status. Iran did surrender “unconditionally”, as the belligerency between the two heightened. It promised “dire sequences” to the US. 

Scary uncertainties and confusing times created a gradual disorder because big powers are going wrong, maintaining silence or engaging in double-talk. Regime change talk is neither decent nor a marker for global standards. Assassinations, arm-twisting, encroachments, coup engineering and black propaganda preceded invasions. Governments are in a defiant mood from different continents, most notably Africa, and with apparent mass support. This is how tensions escalate and disorder sets in for a new order, whatever its implications. Trump sounded out that the “so-called supreme leader”, Ayatollah, 86, was within target for assassination, even if not “for the time being”. That kind of language from a superpower does not go down well with any country. Iran seems to have been hurt, but it makes moves weighing the implications as well.

Twists & turns

For someone who vowed that he would end the war in Ukraine and Gaza within 24 hours after getting into office, Trump has not been able to do so for five months since entering the White House for the second time. Instead, he has witnessed the Iran-Israel conflict, involved in a direct attack on Iranian nuclear sites, mumbling threats to the Ayatollah, whose response has been one of defiance and disdain. Earlier, Trump’s pledge attracted anticipation in many quarters over the existing and looming conflicts, giving him the benefit of the doubt. Now, the superpower leader is being relentlessly ridiculed on social media. There was no decisive winner, and Iran was by no means an expected loser. 

Even if unintended, perhaps, the latest Iran-Israel flare-up has brought into sharper global focus the horrendous situation in Gaza, where more than 60,000 Palestinians have been killed and two-thirds of residential and other structures destroyed in less than two years. That pro-Iran Hamas was involved in the deaths of seven Israeli soldiers in Gaza in less than 24 hours after the Iran-Israel formal sum up West Asia’s painfully stark political reality. All three sides involved in the latest flare-up in West Asia wanted a way out in the best possible dignified manner. In the wake of the truce, one thing is crystal clear: Israel is not as strong as it was thought to be, and Iran is not a pushover that some sections portrayed. 

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)