German Polls See Rise Of Far Right Forces

Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) coalition emerged victorious in the national election held last fortnight in Germany. The Christian Democratic Union - a centrist conservative party in coalition with the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) - won the most votes overall, at approximately 29 per cent of the national vote combined. Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU party is set to become the next chancellor (prime minister) of Germany with 208 seats for the CDU/CSU. Konrad Adenauer - the first prime minister of Germany immediately after the Second World War - founded the Christian Democratic Party.   He was a fervent advocate of European unity. He was at the forefront to conceptualise and sign the Treaty of Rome in 1957, which laid the groundwork for the European Economic Community and eventually the European Union. 

His efforts earned him recognition as one of the founding fathers of the European Union. He was instrumental in uniting Catholics and Protestants in a broad-based, centre-right political movement. As a result, his party CDU, quickly gained popularity and became a dominant force in German politics. In 1949, Adenauer was elected as the first prime minister of the newly established Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany). His election marked the beginning of a new era in German politics. As prime minister, Adenauer faced the monumental task of rebuilding a nation devastated by war and division. He prioritised economic recovery, democratic governance, and Germany’s integration with Western Europe and the United States. One of Adenauer’s most significant achievements as prime minister was his role in orchestrating the German “economic miracle.” 

Marshall Plan

Under Adenauer’s leadership, the government implemented policies that promoted industrial growth, investment, and social market economy principles. With the help of the Marshall Plan, which provided financial aid from the United States for Europe’s reconstruction to repair the destruction of the Second World War, West Germany experienced rapid economic growth. The country rose from the ashes of World War II to become one of the world’s leading economies.       Adenauer’s economic policies focused on free-market principles while ensuring social welfare programmes to support the population. 

In Germany, two major parties - Christian Democrats founded by Konrad Adenauer and Social Democrats, which has a long history dating back to the pre-Marxian era - compete for power during the contemporary times. These two big parties win the elections almost interchangeably in Germany. In this election, the incumbent chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democratic Party (SPD) previously held the most seats in the parliament, saw his party’s seats drop significantly to just 120, thus being reduced to the third largest in the legislature. The German election results show that the big winners in the polls are the Alternative for Germany (AfD) on the far right and the leftist party on the far left. The AfD has emerged as the runner-up in the polls, driving Social Democrats out of it. 

Deep frustration with failed migration policies, the gridlock of the former government coalition, and a general sense of economic uncertainty and decline drove an expectedly strong performance from the AfD. Another unexpected was the surge of the Left Party past the 5 per cent threshold to just under 9 per cent. Under thinly veiled peace agendas, both rightist and leftist parties oppose NATO membership. They have strong pro-Russian sympathies and call into question the support for Ukraine. The success of both parties in these elections signals that the fragmentation of Germany’s party landscape is likely here to stay. It is also a call to action for those in the democratic mainstream, especially CDU, to finally start focusing on the fundamental economic, social, and foreign policy challenges facing Europe’s largest economy.

At the same time, this is also a big moment for the CDU, which has evolved as a strong party since the days when it was led by former Chancellor Angela Merkel. The hope is that Merz will see this win as an opportunity to change Germany’s approach to its economy, its defence spending, and its general role as a leader within and beyond Europe. According to Atlantic Council expert Jacob Heilbrunn, Donald Trump will discover a more determined Germany that will seek to maximise the prowess of the European Union (EU) against the United States. 

EU solidarity 

A CDU chancellorship may be exactly what Germany needs to snap itself out of its political malaise. In terms of how Washington might react, some loud criticism from Trump and his team towards the Germans is expected to keep AfD out of the coalition. The US may react that Germany isn’t respecting the will of the people. Trump and his team should expect a stubbornly pro-European Germany that will not take any perceived US bullying lightly. Merz has already stressed that the United States’ interference in Germany’s election via Musk and Vance was as “brazen” as that of Moscow. He also had some strong criticism for the White House over Europe’s exclusion from peace talks in Ukraine. 

Merz vowed to strengthen Germany’s and Europe’s independence vis-à-vis the United States. That might suit a Trump administration just fine if that means a push to strengthen German defence capabilities and a new energy policy. Merz also has experience with the US business world.   According to Atlantic Council experts, he could perhaps get off to a fresh start with Washington—if the new US administration doesn’t prematurely make this all too difficult for Merz domestically. Here, the tariff threats—to which Germany’s export-reliant economy is especially vulnerable—are the main focus.  Merz will also be more outspoken on US tariffs and is perhaps less likely to break EU solidarity on a common European response.        

(The author is presently associated with Policy Research Institute (PRI) as a senior research fellow.