Will Trump's 2nd Innings Be Different?

Barely a month has passed since the newly elected President of the United States Donald Trump assumed office. Soon after he took office of presidency Trump signed a large number of executive orders that have created a wide-ranging impact both at home and abroad. The suspension of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has created more hue and cry within America and across the world. This decision has impacted many countries that received US assistance through the USAID. Initially, the USAID activities have been suspended for three months and all US staff working in the USAID have been called back. Since President Trump’s close aide, Elon Musk, called the USAID a ‘criminal organisation’, this agency is less likely to be revived even after three months. 

Trump’s decision to withdraw from other international commitments including the Paris Climate Agreement, the World Health Organisation and others will also have a global impact. Most of the actions Trump has undertaken are compatible with the promises made during his election campaign. He also announced several actions to save costs as a part of Trump’s slogan ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA). The MAGA campaign does not specify whether the United States has been weakened and needs to be revived as a powerful country. 

Sole power

Still, the United States has been the sole superpower and its principal challenger China is way behind in military, economy and technology. The rest of the powers do not pose a significant challenge to the dominant position of the United States. America’s power and greatness will be maintained only when the United States further increases and enlarges its engagements in the world at bilateral and multilateral levels. However, the withdrawal from global engagements and commitments may not elevate US prestige, power and credibility instead it erodes, which may not help make America great. 

Externally, Trump has made some commitments including ending the Ukraine war. Since he came to power, he seems to be honest with his promise and he has been in touch with parties involved in the war including Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reports indicate the fact that Trump is serious about ending the Ukraine war, for which his formula would give Moscow some upper hand. It has been assumed that the ceasefire will have to be agreed to accept the status quo on the control of territory while addressing Moscow’s key concern that Ukraine would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). 

While he appears to be serious and more pragmatic in ending the Ukraine war, Trump’s approach may not accomplish what he intends to do in the Middle East as some Arab leaders have expressed indignation at Trump’s proposal on Gaza.  However, Trump has continued his contact and consultations with leaders of the Middle East in this connection. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the first foreign leader Trump hosted in Washington DC after assuming US presidency. The second was the Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the third foreign leader to visit Washington in the last month is King Abdullah of Jordon. 

The meeting with Netanyahu and King Abdullah was focused entirely on the situation in the Middle East and more particularly on ending the Israel-HAMAS war. Japan is Washington’s key ally and is an important part of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and QUAD, which are believed to be Washington’s tools to contain China’s rise and influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, Japan and China have some territorial disputes in the East China Sea and differences on strategic and other matters. 

In the present geo-political context where Asia has come to be the key pivot of international power, India’s place has come to be more significant than ever. India has emerged as an important country due mainly to its strategic location in the heart of the Indian Ocean, which is the lifeline for trade between Asia and the Middle East and also Europe. India’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean from the Strait of Malacca to the Arabian Sea has elevated its role and place due to which other powers are trying to coax and cajole this South Asian power. India is at the moment fifth largest economy and a regional power. 

China’s phenomenal rise is yet another factor that has given India’s elevated role in international politics. The international powers especially the United States and others that are not happy with China’s rise seek to have greater alliance and cooperation with India in the present geopolitical context, especially for containing China. The West more particularly the United States cannot check China’s rise without India’s active support and role. India, too, is not comfortable with China’s emergence as a global power. The United States and India have this common agenda in which Washington needs New Delhi more than the other way around. 

India’s significance 

Against this background, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the United States took place. Modi is the fourth world leader to meet Trump in the White House within a month of the latter’s assuming office as president. This implies the significance of India in the present international geopolitical game.  During Modi’s visit, the US and India agreed on several issues of strategic, defence, security, technological, economic, energy and trade-related nature that will have a long-term impact at regional and international levels. Modi has said that Trump’s MAGA and his Make India Great Again (MIGA) will have fusion to make the world great. 

This is Donald Trump’s second term. His first term from 2017 to 2021 was in certain cases different from other US presidents. Donald Trump was perhaps the first US president, who did not start war during his first term. Now, he has promised to end war and promote peace in the world. The other thing Trump is seeking to ensure is the reciprocal trade with other countries. 

He has time and again made it clear that if countries want low tariffs on their goods, they also need to lower tariffs on American exports. The other matter Trump has spoken about is that US allies need to strengthen their economy and defence capabilities so that they can defend their interest independently. Trump promised many things during his election campaign. Now it is to be seen how he moves ahead in translating his promises into action including ending wars and ensuring peace in the world.

(The author is former chief editor of this daily and former ambassador. lamsalyubanath@gmail.com)