Trump's Expansionist Tone: Bluff Or Real?

The world is abuzz with reactions to newly elected President of United State America Donald Trump’s statements as to how he would run US foreign policy.  As Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the US on Monday, the world leaders and media alike have expressed concern particularly over his expansionist ambitions to annex Canada and Greenland, retake control of the Panama Canal, and rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. 

Trump has reiterated his threats to use economic arsenals at his disposal to coerce Canada and Mexico while not ruling out the use of military force to subjugate Panama and Greenland. He has argued that this is vital for America’s economic and military interests. He strongly believes that this is necessary to thwart China and Russia’s political and economic influence across world. Leaders of the countries in question have outright rejected his proposal, and leaders of America’s powerful European allies like France and Germany have warned that this could have catastrophic consequences for the future international order. 

Blunt rejoinders 

Canada has been blunt in its response, with outgoing PM Trudeau saying there’s “not a snowball chance in hell” that Canada will become the 51st US state. A recent poll shows that majority of Canadians do not want to be part of the US. Greenland declared, “Greenland is not for sale,” with mother nation Denmark saying that it is up to Greenlanders to decide. Greenlanders have constitutional rights to vote for independence. Mexico is defiant, asserting that renaming of the Gulf of Mexico is out of the question. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has jokingly presented a counter-proposal to rename North America as “América Mexicana” (Mexican America), as it was mentioned that way in a political document preceding Mexico’s constitution. 

As for the Panama Canal, Trump has made two separate claims. First, he was furious over the “exorbitant” fees Panama charged on ships using the canal services. Later, he claimed that the Canal was being operated by China, much against US interests. Panama has rejected all the allegations and said that the Canal belongs to and will be operated by Panama. The US built the Canal in the early 1900s and handed its ownership back to Panama in 1999. While Canada and Greenland appear to be positive towards accommodating his ambitions by adapting to the new normal, Mexico and Panama have clearly stated that they won’t be cowed by his threat. 

During his first term, Trump proposed to purchase Greenland, the arctic island with fewer than 57,000 people. Without ruling out the use of force, he is pressing the autonomous Danish territory to acquiesce to his demand. Trump’s America is likely to face a tit-for-tat from the EU if he uses his economic leverage to force its member into submission. However, annexing Greenland with force will trigger both legal and strategic crises in US’s relationship with its allies. While attacking a fellow NATO member is inconceivable, members must collectively respond to attacks on fellow members. Both Denmark and the US are NATO members.

Controlling the Canal by force within the sovereign territory of Panama will certainly generate a tsunami of reactions from both allies and opponents. This will not only further damage US’s reputation dented by the debacles in Afghanistan and Iraq, this will also set a precedent for powerful nations to invade sovereign countries. Will Trump go ahead with his plans? Going by his checkered history, he’s known to use bluffs to coerce his opponents into doing his bidding but would do little if they failed to comply. In an article published in Medium in 1919, Adrea Gonzalez-Ramirez writes, “For President Trump, it’s bloviate first and blueprint later,” adding that he “relishes a confrontation on the world stage.” And Trump’s officially released portrait, wearing “a stern expression, eyebrow cocked,” seems to be deliberately designed for that purpose. 

Trump made several foreign policy threats but did not follow through with actions. He said he’d pull out of NATO if its members failed to meet their share of its security expenses. He did nothing when many members failed to meet the target of spending 2 per cent of their GDP on security. He threatened to obliterate North Korea from the face of the earth but ended up embracing Kim Jong-un, “the rocket man” in his own words. Even though he designated China as a currency manipulator, the label was lifted a couple of months later with little consequence. Likewise, he made threats to armed groups and “rogue regimes” when US personnel were targeted in the Middle East but failed to pursue them except dropping a couple of bombs here and there. 

Tactics working 

However, Trump tactics appear to be working to some extent. As soon as he announced that he’d impose tariffs on goods coming from Canada and Mexico if they failed to stop the flow of drugs and illegal immigrants into the US, Canadian PM Trudeau flew to Florida to meet the President-elect. The reason was obvious. And Canada has recently increased investment in border security. Likewise, Mexico has also intensified its operation against drug cartels and Central American immigrants trying to cross into the US.  

Greenland’s Prime Minister and Denmark’s foreign minister have sounded reconciliatory regarding security and economic ties with the US without losing grounds on the issue of sovereignty. In fact, there’s already an agreement in place that requires the US to defend Greenland that houses a large US base. Likewise, anticipating a second Trump win, most of the NATO members have already met the 2 per cent threshold. Trump knows that his unpredictable nature spurs rivals into action or, at least, a state of alertness but when it comes to using force, he will have to credibly justify his actions. He may use economic leverage against Canada and Mexico but he can’t afford to use military interventions to realise his ambitions in Greenland and Panama. 

(A PhD in political science from State University of New York, Buffalo, the author currently teaches at IACER. govinda@iacer.edu.np)