LDP Banks On Ishiba’s Image

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s long-time ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its parliamentary majority in the October 27 election, in a drubbing that might be attributed mainly to a series of public scandals in high places. The party, which has always been in power since 1955, with interruptions of four years in two spells, is now18 seats short of majority in the 465-member House of Representatives, including that of its coalition partner Komeito. But the coalition retains majority in the upper chamber. 

Prior to the election, the LDP- Komeito alliance had a comfortable majority of 279. In fact, Ishiba’s party commanded a majority on its own at 247. In October, the LDP obtained 191 seats as against the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ)’s 148 seats. The CDPJ’s performance is significant considering its strength of only 98 seats in the previous house.

The first three and a half decades since 1955 and after were smooth sailing for the LDP. Composed of at least four factions, it sorted out differences on party leadership and policy issues to arrive at consensus behind closed doors. Today, there are basically two factions, and former prime ministers have less influence than they did in earlier decades. 

Incidents of regular scandals, including bribery and influence peddling, have weakened the LDP. Opposition parties emerged as clear options once each in the 1990s and the new millennium, dethroning the legacy party twice to form their government. Poor performance and dubious decisions toppled them from power, which prompted the LDP to claim that its rivals had neither the experience nor the vision to govern. 

Ishiba’s image test

The LDP agreed upon the new prime minister with the hope that his image would work for stemming the slide in the party’s support base. Ishiba’s predecessor Fumio Kishida stepped down when even replacing several cabinet ministers failed to shore up the party image. 

Known for making his “radical” views public and in parliament, Ishiba’s record made his peers rate him as a maverick — a trait acquired over his innings of 38 years as a parliamentarian. He was quickly affirmed party leader, by virtue of which he automatically became prime minister on October 1, enabling him to quickly call for the early polls. 

Although electoral majority was not obtained, Ishiba did not carry the personal baggage of defeat because he was barely four weeks into office. The 67-year-old former banker was allowed to start afresh. LDP stalwarts calculated that his background image would make people hope for new policies fetching satisfactory results, which would mean a breather for setting things right. The challenges for Ishiba include the economy and implementing some of his ideas aired over the years.

China and Germany have edged past the one-time world No. 2 economy of Japan to take the second and third spots as global economic powerhouses. The IMF this year indicated that India is set to take the fourth place in 2025. That means Japan will be relegated to the fifth rung. Voters have relied on LDP for long because of the nation’s remarkable recovery in a country severely suffering from the effects of World War II. LDP’s rule was interrupted twice, from 1993-1994 and 2009-2012. Bribery scandals had entangled the party on the eve of both the elections.

As the main opposition, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) has not been able to offer a stiff competition to the ruling team, whose members are frequently embroiled in scams. Despite an impressive mandate in the 2010s, the party could not cope with the existing challenges, and paved way for the LDP to bounce back in a big way after the 2012 election. 

That Tokyo hosted the 1964 Olympics showcased the country’s heady recovery to an astonished world. The event was marvelled across the world, and Japanese people rewarded the LDP to majority mandate in parliament for decades.  With voters in rural areas constituting its main support base, LDP’s parliamentarians carry conservative social values and press for a strong defence policy. They have since long wanted to revise the US-drafted constitution that renounces war.

The LDP’s partnership with the Komeito party rhymes with its orientation to conservative outlook. For the junior partner has the backing of a Buddhist group with several million members. Ishiba is no novice, having served as minister with the experience of several portfolios, including defence and agriculture. He was the party’s secretary general under Shintaro Abe, prime minister in 2006-7 and 2012-20, who was assassinated in 2022.

Bold views

During his nearly four decades of political career in parliament, Ishiba did not hesitate in speaking out his mind. He supports legalising same-sex marriage and calls for strengthening the defences. Some angry fellow party members called him a “black sheep” and a “radical”; some just about tolerated him; but the majority endorsed his views in silence. 

For someone whose favourite pastime includes building model warships, the new job at the head of the government should provide Ishiba with room for translating into reality what he has been championing for all along. Had the LDP majority not been with him, he would have been sidelined long ago into near oblivion. Today, many of his previous critics are banking on him to give a new direction to the organisation’s policy and shore up the party image. 

Public approval ratings of recent premiers have largely remained lukewarm, and some of them suffered outright poor response. The public’s apathy toward the opposition was what saved the LDP from a fall into the pit. Compelled to form a coalition cabinet does not mean all is lost. LDP has a history of bouncing back. For a party in power with nearly seven decades of history of being at the helm of state affairs, Ishiba’s task is to deliver quick. 

Ishina’s reputation as a prime minister depends on what is delivered and how soon. For particularly the younger generation is losing patience. A few swift measures with equally quick results should send the right signal to voters. Positive indicators might earn Ishiba a second term. But right now, openly long ambitions might seem premature.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)