Unified Socialist On Horns Of Dilemma?

Despite being a leader of fringe party in the coalition government, CPN-Unified Socialist chair Madhav Kumar Nepal continues to send ripples through the ruling parties. On Wednesday, he joined a meeting of opposition parties at the residence of Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba in Budhanilkantha. Nepal’s participation in the meeting of opposition groups triggered quick reactions from the ruling party leaders. In order to allay concerns regarding the fate of the current alliance, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda inquired with Nepal about his parleys with Deuba and made sure that the Unified Socialist was with the current coalition. 

Not only this, PM Prachanda also held talks with respected leader of Unified Socialist Jhalanath Khanal at the former’s official residence, Baluwatar to ensure that Nepal’s party would not desert the ruling alliance at the moment. Khanal, who has been batting for broader alliance of the left and progressive forces, is for bolstering the present coalition government having the left majority. One can see an interesting scenario, too. When Nepal meets Deuba surreptitiously or publicly, Khanal immediately rushes to Baluwatar to clarify the party’s position and dispel suspicion. This shows Nepal and Khanal represent two different lines of thought in terms of ideology, strategy and tactic of the party that is going to hold general convention from June 30 to July 4.

Ambivalent posture

Detractors have accused Nepal of showing unstable behaviour by setting his feet on two boats. But, behind the veil of Nepal’s restlessness lies political and psychological elements.  With the formation of new coalition government involving CPN-UML, CPN-Maoist Centre and Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), the Unified Socialist suffered a setback. It was a blow to Nepal who was next in line to become Prime Minister after Prachanda under the previous alliance. The alliance between the UML and Maoist Centre was abrupt and upsetting for him. Although Nepal was roped into the current coalition, his feelings are still with Deuba for the latter has kept space for possible collaboration with Nepal in the future. 

Moreover, unlike the previous coalition where Nepal was a part of its apex body that guided and influenced the major decisions of the government, he is now pushed on the margins. Nepal’s party feels humiliated in the centre and provinces alike. UML chair KP Sharma Oli, Maoist Centre chair and PM Prachanda and RSP chair Rabi Lamichhane run the show. Nepal is not consulted on the key issues raised in the parliament and the streets. He is a mere spectator but he has moral obligation to defend the government’s decisions for his party is a part of it.

Nepal’s relations with the UML chair Oli have not improved as expected. Instead, he has to endure taunts from UML’s stalwarts from time to time. Even PM Prachanda has switched to Oli for political expediency, constricting Nepal’s role in major decisions. This is a reason why Nepal is showing restiveness and frustration with the government. Growing Prachanda-Oli bonhomie amply implies that the politics operate on the basis of immediate necessities and survival imperative instead of lofty ideals and morality. At one point, Prachanda, Khanal and Nepal had banded together against Oli when the latter was at the helm of NCP-led government. Their faction feud led to the dissolution of parliament where the ruling communist party commanded near two-thirds majority.

In politics, the parties apply multiple strategies – hidden and open – to fulfil their objectives. Nepal sought to put pressure on the coalition leaders to meet his demand by meeting with Deuba. When Prachanda and Oli had weaselled out their decision to allow the Unified Socialist to lead the Sudurpaschim Province’s government, Nepal went to Deuba to discuss the possible alliance to form the government there. This strategy worked and the alliance agreed to allow the Unified Socialist to constitute the government in Sudurpaschim but the UML is yet to join it. But such strategy also entails risk of alienation and mutual distrust.

Evolving political dynamics have impelled Nepal to walk on the edge of a sword. When Upendra Yadav-led Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) was in the federal government, both JSP and Unified Socialist had decisive role for the stability of the government. As Nepal and Yadav allegedly talked to Deuba for creation of a new coalition, Prachanda and Oli became suspicious of their motives. This has resulted in the split in JSP. Ashok Rai formed Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal with seven lawmakers and only five lawmakers are with Yadav. JSP division not only weakened Yadav but also threw cold water on Nepal's ambition. Now Yadav's JSP is on the verge of losing the leadership of Madhes Province as Prachanda and Oli have sought Nepal's backing in forming a new government under the Janamat Party there. 

Fear of split 

Nepal harbours another fear – if his conflict with Prachanda and Oli keeps growing, his party might face the fate of JSP. If one goes by the media reports, some ruling party leaders have threatened to split Unified Socialist if Nepal kept trying to upset the ruling alliance. The existing Political Parties Act does not allow splitting a party until it completes five years of formation. But it can be split with the introduction of an ordinance. Nepal has not ruled out the danger of party division through an ordinance.  

Some party insiders state that if Nepal continues to be in two minds, its image and strength will take a hard knock. Seemingly, Nepal has upped the ante to guarantee the party’s decent position in the centre and provinces. The Unified Socialist has a decisive role in forming the governments in Madhes, Bagmati and Sudurpaschim. However, it needs to pursue an unambiguous stance when it comes to dealing with the ruling coalition or the opposition alliance. By blowing hot and cold, the party can't give a good message to the cadres and countrymen as well.

(The author is Deputy Executive Editor of this daily.)