4% GDP growth estimated in 2nd quarter of FY 2023/24

Kathmandu, Apr. 3: In its preliminary estimation, the National Statistics Office (NSO) has predicted a 4 per cent growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) at the constant price in the second quarter of the current fiscal year 2023/24.

In the seasonally unadjusted quarterly GDP report made public on Tuesday, the NSO estimated an increase of 4 per cent in gross domestic product in the second quarter of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year.

The positive growth of the economy this quarter is attributed to the increase in paddy and other 

agricultural products and the rising tourism arrivals along with the increase in the total value added in the hotel sector.

In addition, due to the slight growth in the trade sector and the positive growth of other sectors except industry, the overall economy is heading to a positive growth, said the report.

In the sectoral comparison between the second quarter of the current fiscal year 2023/24 and the second quarter of the previous year 2022/23, out of the total 18 industrial classifications of the economy, the total value added growth rate of 17 industrial sectors has been positive.

As per the estimation of the NSO, the activity related to accommodation and food service sector has the highest growth rate of 29.3 per cent while electricity and gas sector are the second highest growing industrial sectors with a growth rate of 17.1 per cent. 

Likewise, the transport and storage sector accounted for 14.3 during the review period.

Similarly, the growth rate of value added in the mining and quarrying sector is estimated to be 9.4 per cent. 

Along with the increase in deposits and loans, the growth rate of the financial and insurance sectors is 9.1 per cent during the review period. 

The NSO estimated that the growth rate of the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector, whose contribution was the highest to the economy during this period, stood at 3 per cent during the second quarter of the current fiscal year.

The NSO said that the increase in cereals, including paddy and animal products, has had a positive effect on the growth rate of this sector.

The gross value addition of the wholesale and retail trade sector will witness a marginal growth of 0.5 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding period last year, said the NSO. Due to the decline in the import of commercial goods, the growth of the business sector has not been satisfactory. 

 The value added growth rate of the industrial goods manufacturing sector remained negative at a marginal rate of 0.4 per cent during the review period.

However, seasonally adjusted quarterly gross domestic product at the basic price is estimated to increase only by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal year compared to the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

Looking at seasonally adjusted quarterly gross value addition, economic activities increased in 12 of the total 18 economic sectors in the second quarter of the current fiscal year (Kartik, Mansgir and Poush) compared to the first quarter of the current fiscal year (Shrawan, Bhadra and Ashoj)), said the NSO. The production of six sectors, however, was negative during the review period.

It estimated that the total value added in the electricity and gas supply sector would be 9.3 per cent.

Sectorwise, the transport and storage sector accounted for 6.5 during the review period.

The value added growth rate of the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector was 2.6 per cent during the second quarter of the current fiscal year.

Among the total six industrial sectors with negative growth, the construction sector has the highest negative growth rate of 7.2 per cent. 

According to the NSO, the growth of this sector remained negative due to the fact that the construction work could not accelerate in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.