Measures To Tackle Erratic Monsoon

With the onset of the monsoon this year, three districts -- Taplejung, Pachthar and Sankhuwasabha -- in the east Nepal witnessed unexpected rainfall in a very short period. Cloudburst triggered floods and landslides, causing a huge loss of lives and property. The disaster-affected people shared that they had never experienced such massive rainfall and flood in the Hewakhola. The rainfall which started on June 17 swept away bridges of the downward rivers that severed connection with the villages of surrounding districts. The concerned authorities and meteorologists have also commented that the downpour that occurred in the early week of monsoon was quite unusual. 

Last year when the people were bracing to celebrated Dashain festival, unexpected rainfall occurred in most parts of the country, resulting in floods, landslides and inundations. Thousands of passengers were stranded on highways as landslides and floods halted the vehicular movement. The unanticipated rainfalls dampened the festival mood of Nepalis. The vagary of climate made the people think that they were still in mid-monsoon days.  The flood in the Melamchi River that occurred in June 2021 was one of the most disastrous rain-triggered disasters killed at least 24 people, destroyed hundreds of houses and infrastructures. The beautiful settlement of Melamchi market turned into a desert. The current of flood debris was so strong and enormous that they buried the scores of multistoried buildings of Melamchi Bazaar.

Abnormal precipitation 

Similarly, heavy landslides that swept away the entire villages in Itani Hill in Sindhupalchowk on August 2, 2014 claimed the lives of 145 persons and destroyed 122 houses in Mankha, Kagune, Damside and Tekanpur villages. A massive hill collapsed following the continuous rainfall and villages were buried into the Sunkoshi River in no time.  The intensity and amount of rainfall, which induced huge landslide at Jure, was beyond the imagination. In 2009, heavy rainfalls caused floods and landslides in 14 districts of mid and far western regions of the country. Around 78 people died and 175,000 were hit hard due to disaster.

These were some incidents of major abnormal precipitations experienced in the last 15 years. In these incidents, the first common thing is cloudburst type rainfall happening within a short period. Second, the rain-induced massive landslides and floods were beyond anyone's imagination. Third, except the Jure landslide and Melamchi flood, other incidents of rain-induced disasters took place either at the very beginning of the monsoon or after the end of monsoon period. Fourth, the intensity and frequency of the precipitation have changed compared to that of previous years.    

According to experts, the pattern of the monsoon in Nepal has changed due to climate change. The number of rainy days has been decreased but the intensity of the rain in a very short time has increased. In the meteorological history of 30 years, the period of the monsoon has been revised in 2021. Now, the starting date of monsoon is 13th June and its withdrawal is 2nd October. Earlier it was June 10 and September 23. According to the Climate Division (Climate Analysis Section) of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the monsoon occurs in 112 days. Of total 55 monsoons that took place from 1968 to 2023, around 39 monsoons entered late while 14 arrived early. Only 3 monsoons entered on time.

According to Nepal Country Climate and Development Report 2022 prepared by the World Bank Group, as temperatures rise across South Asia, climate and disaster risks in Nepal are expected to increase further affecting people, the economy, the environment, and development gains. Nepal’s temperature is projected to increase by about 0.9oC between 2016 and 2045 under a medium-range emissions pathway. Winters are projected to be drier and monsoon summers wetter, with up to a threefold increase in rainfall. The number of people in Nepal annually affected by river flooding could double to around 350,000 in 2030 from 157,000 in 2010.

Shifting monsoon 

Nepalis largely rely on monsoon for planting paddy, the staple food, and other agriculture activities. But this occupation has become insecure owing to the lack of adequate rainfalls in time. With the shifting of the monsoon season, the time of paddy plantation should also be shifted for better production. The unusual monsoon pattern has also posed a threat to the physical infrastructures built over and around the rivers and hilly areas. The past experiences and future predictions have impelled us to adapt to the new climatic changes and events. This also compels us to rethink our agriculture system and life style. Without adapting to new methods introduced to cope with the climatic conditions, it will be difficult to grow crops, vegetables and fruits in a sustainable manner. 

The government and general public should be aware of the changing patterns of monsoons and the whole climatic conditions throughout the 365 days. The government should bring new adaptive options from crop production, manage better irrigation systems and teach and train the grassroots level farmers to tackle the changing climatic situation. If the adaptive measures are not taken in time, the people have to suffer the climate change-triggered natural disasters.  It’s never too late to roll out adaptive schemes meant for saving live and national economy. 

(Tandan is associated with online edition of this daily. tandannews@gmail.com)