Geopolitical Reshaping Unfolds

Despair sets in the Western world, whose domination was beginning to decline at the turn of the century. President Donald Trump of the United States put the dot mark, announcing its end, but little realising that he would only accelerate the process. Geopolitical reshaping means new power dynamics in strategic relationships. The financial bleed and the dent in international prestige the US has suffered in the war with Iran in coordination with Israel since February 28 present an expensive but valued lesson: not all nations can be bullied and maligned eternally. The “pariah” Islamic nation with vast oil reserves has indicated what preparations it had taken down the decades to face the eventuality of armed conflict with the best of the West—the superpower US.

It had to happen. That is the law of humankind. It was only a question of when. The dominant and domineering did not admit so for obvious reasons. They did try hard to dig their heels deep and for long. This could not prevent the inevitable from happening. Exceptionalism acknowledged by Europe on its own accord and imposed upon the rest of the world cannot last for eternity. That status stands on a rickety pair of stilts today. Superiority complex goes against the basic humanitarian grain, sustained only through gross sectarianism and exclusive interests of a few at the expense of an overwhelming majority.    

Strides of shift

Today, power paces east. Any likely global disorder presages an inevitable era of a new world order, which will be multipolar in shape. However, if stronger nations join hands in splitting the global sphere into their respective space, as they did in the 19th and 20th centuries, the long-held belief that humankind is inherently conspiratorial, greedy and ill-fated gets sadly reiterated. As predictable as the summer rains, the ruthless truth about big powers is to hound out weaker targets through threats, if possible, and outright actions, including sponsored uprisings, military coups and assassinations, if intimidation does not do the desired trick. Drafts of new rules will be scripted in the ensuing decades, with Asia and Africa asserting their voices confidently and credibly.

France and Canada, both traditionally key allies, either “cannot accept” or “won’t pay $1 billion” for the Trump-conceived project, “Board of Peace”, which they fear could turn out to be a peace breaker, given Trump’s aggressive ogling at the natural resource-rich or countries doing better than the US in trade market. Not many powers are likely to join the bandwagon constructed by Washington’s Board of Peace, with the rest of the Board members expected to pay willingly for playing second fiddle. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said it is “incompatible with France’s international commitments and in particular its membership in the United Nations, which obviously cannot be called into question under any circumstances.” Cumulative effects are working against the traditional hegemons. Regional and bigger powers that resist the hegemons, however, get exposed for their efforts at creating client states of their own. Multilateralism should reduce the scale of this obnoxious, exploitative practice and herald an era of “multipolarisation of the global community and democratisation of international relationships. 

Major weapons manufacturing nations profit from confrontations they help fuel and fan in Ukraine, West Asia or elsewhere. The more and longer armed conflicts, the greater is the demand for their killing machines that jack up exorbitant profits. Laos was the victim of the US’ secret wars from 1964 to 1973. It was a breach of international law, but American President Richard Nixon and his National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger moved to order the gruesome attacks on the Vietnamese with the CIA as the conduit, but without the knowledge of the US Congress. 

“Operation Menu” killed 150,000 civilians in a span of three months in the first half of 1969. Nixon’s ordered the forces to “shoot anything that moves”.  Laotian records of having suffered 270 million bombings in the American “Secret War” from 1964 to 1973 hold outstripping the total number of bombs dropped on Germany and Japan during World War II. The war mongers went without responsibility or accountability. Powerful politicians with conscience at times do not face any consequences in their lifetime, even if posterity emerges with punishing critique. The Trump administration imperils the UN system itself. That in itself might not be as disconcerting as the fact that hardly any government has dared question the design.  

Existential question

The United Kingdom announced, in early June 2024, that pro-Palestine protestors would not have their visa extended any more. More than 2,500 students were arrested in May at the height of mass protests on US campuses. Most of their “like-minded” cousins elsewhere preferred to keep mum over the “delicate” issue: Israel’s “existential” question and loss of human lives in Gaza. His desire to have the US possess foreign territories and natural resources has been held in check until now by his fear of entanglement in foreign wars. His claim of having ended at least eight wars is a blatant design to wangle the Nobel peace prize. The ploy did not work. 

The Iran war since February 28 has proved to be a monumental miscalculation and threatens a massive loss of face to the duo that triggered the armed conflict. Iran has suffered but also gained much attention for its ability to face the superpower and West Asia’s supposedly most-sophisticated military force. The war has had large-scale ripple effects on several countries in the Gulf region, which host dozens of American military bases. Others have also been adversely affected. Iran’s blockade on the Gulf of Hormuz fuelled oil prices, as the narrow strip is the route for 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas supply. Sanctions on middle-level powers with big power partnership boomerang. Boasts, bullying and threats of war do not work the way a big power might want in a multipolar world as effectively as they did earlier.

(Kharel writes on int'l affairs & media.)