Israel-Iran War: World On The Edge

As the Israel-Iran war has entered its ninth day, the world is on the edge. Both nations continue to trade missile strikes against each other, targeting strategic locations. Israel started an unprovoked war by attacking alleged ‘nuclear sites’ of Iran on June 13, killing scores of Iranian scientists and military leaders. In its retaliatory move, Iran fired a wave of strikes on Israel, with its ballistic missiles piercing through Israel’s army intelligence centre and a Mossad spy agency operations planning centre in Tel Aviv. 

With its impactful retaliatory strikes, Iran has proved its military capability, which even Israel and the US had not imagined, although the former has suffered much in the ongoing conflict. Iran has destroyed the myth of the invincibility of Iron Dome, Israel’s multitiered and integrated air defence system. Developed in 2006 to counter the rocket attacks of Hezbollah, it was unable to intercept and damage Iranian supersonic missiles when they glided past it. Experts say that some hypersonic missiles have been equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) that can trick air defences and fly at speeds five times faster than the speed of sound. This may be the reason why Iranian supersonic missiles like the Fattah-2 dodged the Iron Dome and precisely hit the targeted sites.

Israel insists that Iran is close to making an atomic bomb, and both Israel and the US want to stop Iran from getting an atomic weapon, which, according to Israel, poses an existential threat to it. But this claim lacks substantial ground. In his recent comment, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi has admitted that the agency did not have any proof that Iran is going to make nuclear weapons. 

Trump disavowal 

In yet another development, U.S. President Donald Trump has disavowed the statement of Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who in March this year said that there was no evidence that Iran was building a nuclear weapon. On Friday, Gabbard herself changed her tone and said that the media took her testimony to Congress out of context.  It sounds weird that the President himself disowns the assessment of his intelligence community. This reminds us of the false claim of the US that Iraq had biological weapons of mass destruction and on the pretext of which, the then US president George Bush and British prime minister Tony Blair joined hands to attack Iraq, killing around a million Iraqis and forcing the country into an endless war and instability. Later, the UN and the US investigation teams failed to trace any stockpiles of biological, chemical and atomic weapons. 

Observers claim that a similar situation might arise in the Israel-Iran conflict, which is flaring up in intensity and scale each passing day. It is argued that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu kicked off war on the eve of the 6th round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US in an apparent attempt to thwart it. Netanyahu wants to drag the US into the conflict against Iran. Oscillating US President has announced that he would decide whether or not to get involved in the war in two weeks. Though the US has already indirectly been involved in the conflict by supplying weapons to Israel, Trump's pause to enter the war is positive and a diplomatic solution can be hammered out within this period.

Upon his election to the presidency, Trump said he would be a ‘peace president.’ His harsher stance against Iran might take him in the direction of what Netanyahu wanted, but this will smash his credibility and push the US into another intractable war, causing a huge loss of lives and property. First, he had demanded an unconditional surrender of Iran. Then, in another comment, he used the word ‘end,’ not ceasefire, on the conflict, indicating that he wanted to finish the job by striking the alleged nuclear plant of Iran. 

 But Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected his call for surrender and warned against the US involvement in the war, stating that it would cause irreparable damage to the Americans. A large majority of his Make America Great Again (MAGA) campaigners are against the idea of joining the war against Iran. Trump has been critical of his previous administration for throwing the country into unnecessary conflicts with different countries.  

How will China and Russia, close allies of Iran, react and act if the US directly gets involved in the conflict?  Both countries have condemned the Israeli attacks in Iran and warned catastrophe if the US enters into it. However, this conflict tests the diplomatic limits of China and Russia. China provides an economic lifeline to Tehran by buying a huge amount of crude oil from the latter. Russia and Iran are jointly running a nuclear plant in Iran. Although they have stood by Iran in international forums such as the UN, they are unlikely to provide critical military equipment to Iran at this stage of the war.

Negotiation offer 

China has the policy of non-interference and not participating in foreign military confrontations, while Russia is entangled in its war against Ukraine. Both countries have offered to negotiate a peace deal between Israel and Iran. A pertinent question is: Can Iran sustain a fight against Israel and potentially the US without the military support of its allies?

With the US and Israel also betting on toppling the current government of Iran and installing a puppet one, Iran's neighbours have been shaken. Pakistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Egypt, Syria and Lebanon have backed Iran against Israel. After Pakistan threatened to fight on the side of its neighbour and even use nuclear weapons in case Israel strikes Iran with a hypothetical nuclear bomb, Trump invited Pakistan Army Chief Asim to a closed dinner at the White House to change the latter's position. The US has picked Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Iranian Shah, to replace Khamenei. Pahlavi termed the attack in Iran as 'a positive development' and sought regime change. Can Iranian people go against their leaders at a time when their country faces an existential crisis?

(The author is Deputy Executive Editor of this daily.)